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Stock Market Rally Getting Long in the Tooth
By Harry Boxer | Published  09/20/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Stock Market Rally Getting Long in the Tooth

The markets had another strong session with a huge gap opening to the upside.  They then ran hard after that to the highs for the session in the first couple hours.  They backed off for a couple more hours in a consolidative manner, and then rallied to retest the highs just before the Fed announced. After the Fed announcement, the markets then moved sharply lower. The lowest point of that pullback was a successful retest of the morning gap on the Nasdaq, before they firmed back up sharply with about an hour to go before backing and filling into the close.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 72 plus, nearly 7 on the S&P and more than 24 on the Nasdaq 100.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) advanced 1 Ã,¾, and the technicals were solidly positive today, with a little less than 2 to 1 positive ratio on advance-declines on New York and a little more than 3 to 2 on Nasdaq.

Up/down volume was 3 to 2 positive on New York, and more than 3 to 1 positive on Nasdaq.  Total volume on New York was a little less than 1.6 billion.  Nasdaq traded nearly 2.2 billion today.

TheTechTrader.com board was mostly higher but narrowly mixed.  On the point-plus side, there were several gainers:  Apple Computer (AAPL) gained 1.49, Baidu.com (BIDU) 1.39, IIVI 1.11, Qualcomm (QCOM) 1.01, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 1.03. Those were the point-plus gainers.

On the downside, there were no losses of a point or more on my personal board.  Avici Systems (AVCI) gave back 57 cents, DRYS 51 cents, and Fuel Tech (FTEK) 36 cents. 

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the gap up today popped the indices back up through their moving averages on the hourly charts, and the pullback held support.  So at this point the trend is still strong to the upside, with resistance at 1649 on the NDX and around the 1328 Ã,½ area on the S&P.  That high is a new 5 Ã,½-year high on the S&P 500.

Weââ,¬â"¢ll see if thereââ,¬â"¢s any follow-through tomorrow.  After the Fed announces we often get a reversal of the previous day, so weââ,¬â"¢ll see if that does occur or whether they continue the momentum higher.  But the rallyââ,¬â"¢s getting long in the tooth.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.