Energies
Crude pushed a bit higher than anticipated, breaking through a nice down trending channel and shifting the momentum in the market - yet again.  This time of year you got a lot of volatile and unpredictable events that happen at a more frequent pace than the rest of the year - refinery shut downs, high shifts in weekly demand due to summer driving and weather, and a major focus shift on distillate stocks.  These all pump short term premium in the market and help to force short covering rallies.  Moreover the market always has two arguments to play the bull side - either we have too little unleaded for the summer or we are setting up for problems if we have a cold winter.  Either way the bulls get to play the PR game quite a bit over the next few months.  I remain a bear and see critical resistance points 56.50, 57.20 and of course $60.  Sell call premium and have patience.  Buy September puts on the cheap.

Financials
As it will be for some time, the stock market is an avoid it market until we break 1230 or 1140 - get used to seeing this cowardly forecast from this bear with no spine.  If we can get up to the upper range there will be a trade there but otherwise focus on the bond action.  Bonds are once again the place to be and the market showed the expanding volatility it has on Friday's spike to new highs on weak employment data and failure that followed.  The key reversal high still just puts this market on track to test lower trend line support on a daily and weekly channel support, but overall the market showed its true potential to collapse if the foreign buying support leaves this market in a hurry.  Buy puts on bounces with some time and wait it out.  The dollar ran up to new highs as expected and ended the week strong.  Everyone is waiting for a real retracement back to 84 or so and it just isn't going to happen so jump on the bandwagon now before we break 90.  The yen and Canadian dollar are the best shorts, with the euro obviously being a solid short as well given the US dollar forecast.

Grains
Mid-range grain volatility persisted this week as we are in the midst of critical weather season here.  I remain a buyer on dips across the board with a focus on long corn and oats and any volatility play on beans.  Wheat is a great buy at 317 with stops at 3124 or 3092.

Meats
Cattle just won't collapse like it needs to but remains in a solid bear formation and has a good setup to fail to fresh near term lows next week.  Hogs and bellies are now neutral plays as the bear move has happened and further downside play is not worth the risk to the upside.

Metals
Gold strength amid strong US dollar action is a difficult thing to explain, especially when you are a bear trying not to look like you are excusing every upside move in gold with some ridiculous explanation to justify your stance.  Bottom line is a strong US dollar and a strong bond market are conflicting price moves and with strong gold support from various places the market chooses to side with the bond action and not throw caution to the wind on a short term dollar rally.  Nevertheless, if the dollar presses to new highs then the gold players will have no choice as the Japanese buyers will evaporate.  Moreover, the bond market may have very well set a key reversal top on Friday and you could have a deadly combo if bonds break and the dollar runs.  I take this as a terrific opportunity to dollar average and get short gold and especially silver (which, by the way, will see as 40 or 50 cent plunge day if we get some serious complimentary bond and dollar action).  Puts are still the right buy, plus you throw in the cheap volatility premium and it is the way to go here.  Palladium is a great buy with stops below 175.  It has been a long time since I made a platinum call, but right now the market is a screaming sell with a stop at 888 and then I would sell it again at 895 with a stop at 903, but I don't think it will ever get there and the market is going to $650 in a hurry if what I see is not a mirage.

Softs
OJ, like I said last week, is barely registering a pulse right now - not a great sign, but the consolidation will at least get this market somewhere with some force when it breaks.  Unfortunately this bull is admitting some doubt here and I would downsize some bull OJ positions since we didn't get a bull move this week.  Strong coffee and a strong dollar means continued divergence from the dollar relationship and a focus on frost season and true fundamentals.  Get into bull call spreads for Sept.  The cocoa market is a mild sell with bounce potential so the real recommendation remains a long strangle.  Cotton is still a strong sell - hope you listened to me at 57.  Sugar remains a buy and Friday's action needs some good confirmation on Monday for this to be a real run, but all signs point to 950.  Lumber remains a sell.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.