Financials
Stocks: The Dow finally stalled just below the 2000 highs as I mentioned last week. We continue to be bearish and are targeting a move back to 11,400 on the Dow this coming week. While it is too early to say that the bull is dead. We are clearly seeing signs of a bull that, if not dead, is staggering. This market is likely to struggle this week with both upside and downside moves so donââ,¬â"¢t be surprised if we end the week close to where we start it. I continue to accumulate puts on strength.

Bonds: Bonds got the continued pause from the Fed. that we all expected and then proceeded to break out to the upside. This break out did come as a surprise but for now the path of least resistance remains up. We are targeting a move to 113-15 early this week. That should prove to be a resistance point and we are likely to drift after hitting that point.

Energies
Energy continued lower as we expected. Strong support lies between 58-60 on the daily charts, so we are expecting this slide to stall as we approach that zone. We are then expecting the market to consolidate in that range. If you are short I suggest you real in those stops or buy some calls as we near 60. Natural gas continues to be plagued with the Amaranth blow up and until that is sorted out look for Natural gas to continue lower. Once that situation clears itself up, we will be looking for a recovery in Natural gas that moves this market back above 5.00.

Metals
Metals tried to stabilize this past week but we feel the sell off is far from over in the near term. On the daily charts we clearly are building a bear flag pattern that should point the way towards $550 in gold in the coming weeks. Silver too could fall as far as 9.50 in the near term. Copper is the one bright spot for now but as I mentioned last week, if we are in fact seeing a global slowdown, then copper typically falls the hardest so again I must advocate tight stops or options as protection if you are currently long copper.

Grains
Grain did in fact follow through and we are now long both corn and soybean meal. I continue to favor these two grains over the others. Corn should find resistance near 270 so tighten stops up as we get near there. Wheat is very near its 2006 high at 433. I am expecting this resistance to hold in the near term. Longer term we could break out above it but we will cross that bridge when we get to it. Oats continue to look strong and I think they will work there way towards 225 this week.

Softs
OJ continues to push towards the support level near 160 that I mentioned last week. I continue to target 160 this week. In the medium term we could see this market fall as far as 140, so be warned. Cocoa continues to trade within its 1400-1600 range. I do not see the market breaking out of this range anytime soon so for now we remain on the sidelines. Coffee continues to try and recover. Near term I am cautious but longer term I am very bullish. We are expecting this market to move back above 110 sometime in October. Boy am I glad we did not call a bottom in sugar last week! I mentioned that we needed a close above 1338 to confirm the reversal we had seen. As you saw we never made it to that point so we never turned bullish. It has been a virtual bloodbath in sugar these last few days and we are now expecting a move back to single didgits in the near term. This market will be below 10 cents before the week is out. After that we should see some consolidation. What can anyone really say about cotton except yawn? This market should support out near 49 but I still see little reason to trade it. Like I said last week, I would love to trade this market but with so little movement I cannot justify it until we see some kind of trend develop.

Meats
Live cattle continue to consolidate after pulling back off the highs. The Oct contract is bouncing between 89-90, and I expect a move higher if we climb above this weeks range. Even though Oct feeder cattle managed to form a bullish engulfing on Friday, I would look to sell a break below the 113 level. Last week I mentioned a 62-58 bear put spread in Dec lean hogs, and that market is behaving just as expected. I am looking to take partial profits on that spread next week.

Forex Currencies
EUR/USD: This pair finally broker free from its recent range during Thursdayââ,¬â"¢s session. The move was sparked by bullish data from the Philadelphia Fed and the ECB. The fundamental picture may finally be supporting the uptrend we have been waiting for, though we do expect continued volatility in the near term. I am buying support @ 1.2725 with stops below 1.27 and would short the resistance @ 1.2860 with stops above 1.2890.

USD/CHF: After a failed break out through 1.26 last week this pair lost its momentum and sold off quite hard. It was as if the bottom fell out once support @ 1.2470 failed. I am looking to go long @ 1.2308 with stops below 1.2272. If I get filled on that trade I would carefully watch the 1.2430 & 1.2470 levels for resistance and would tighten my stop accordingly.

GBP/USD: Well what can I say; this pair has continued to allude me. The most recent economic data supports the strength we have seen, though this pair is getting a bit extended short term. Substantial resistance from 1.9025 to 1.91 may provide an opportunity to short though I would definitely consider a stop and reverse order on that trade. If we can sustain a move up through 1.91 for more than a day we just might see a bull trend. If you want to be a bit more conservative, watch for the b/o through 1.91 and then wait for and buy a pullback to get in with less risk. If 1.91 holds watch for support @ 1.88-1.8820 for long entry.

USD/JPY: The upside follow through failed to materialize and the sellers seized their opportunity forcing a breakdown after filling the gap. The sell off halted near the support between 116.25 & 116.50. We know have resistance @ 117.25 and support @ 115.90. I would be tempted to play the long side on a bounce off of 115.50-115.60 placing my stops below 115.20. From the short side I would look to fade above 117.30 with stops above 116.60.

AUD/USD: After a brief jaunt up to resistance .7575 this pair fell right back into its range and tested support @ near .7490. I will remain on the sidelines for this pair until we can break free from this range. At this point I would really like to see this pair trade out of the range for more than one day before I would consider putting on a position. Long term support and resistance .7675 and support @ .7430

USD/CAD: Last weekââ,¬â"¢s trade worked almost perfectly for this pair, we went long just above 1.12 and stopped out just below 1.1275, not bad in one day. At this point I am cautious about the upside potential for this pair as there are clearly sellers above 1.1250. I would like to see a bit of consolidation before I make my next move. If support between 1.115-1.116 can hold I may again become a buyer. Otherwise watch for support @ 1.1105 and 1.1050.

Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.

Risk Disclaimer 
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.