UK Nationwide House Prices (SEP) (06:00 GMT; 02:00 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.4% 7.0%
Previous: 0.8% 6.6%
Outlook: The Nationwide Building Societyâ,"s measure of price growth in the UK housing market could slow from August to a rate of 0.4 percent. Prices are still predicted to accelerate annually, however, at a rate of 7.0 percent, which would be the largest such increase since March 2005. As previously noted by the Bank of England, inflation could remain above 3 percent for some time, and these price pressures have resonated throughout the housing market as well. Despite higher levels of inflation, employment rates have improved and consumer spending has been solid, as was recently indicated by the Consortium of British Industryâ,"s Distributive Trades index, which unexpectedly jumped to a reading of 14 from 12. Overall, the UK housing sector should continue to show further resilience throughout the third quarter, and this indicator would offer another example of that.
Previous: House price inflation in the UK, as measured by Nationwide Building Society, accelerated at the fastest annual pace in more than a year during the month of August at a rate of 6.6 percent. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis UK house prices gained 0.8 percent. The Bank of Englandâ,"s surprise 25bp hike to 4.75 percent seemingly did little to dissuade buyers in the market, as BBA mortgage lending and approvals in the month of August were still buoyant - posted greater figures than Julyâ,"s at 6.2 billion British pounds and 71,300 units, respectively.
German Unemployment Change (SEP) (07:55 GMT; 03:55 EST)
(Change) (Rate)
Consensus: -25K 10.6 %
Previous: 5K 10.6 %
Outlook: The German labor market is anticipated to improve in the month of September as the unemployment level could decline by 25,000 people after rising 5,000 the month before. Strong employment numbers have helped to boost domestic demand, as consumers have been more likely to buy and businesses have increased investment spending. Additionally, consumer demand has made solid contributions to second quarter GDP and could continue to do so in the following three months, as hinted to by the GfK consumer confidence figures. With the exception of August, the willingness to buy component has steadily risen since March 2006 from 19.5 to 62.3 for the current month. Downside risk could come from weakening outlooks however, as both IFO and ZEW indicators have reported dismal future expectations, which could keep firms from seeing the need to hire additional employees.
Previous: The unemployment level increased slightly in the month of August by 5,000 to 4.45 million against expectations of an improvement through a 20,000-person decline. The end of the World Cup, which had provided a large number of temporary jobs, namely in the services industry, contributed to the lower than anticipated figure. However, in unadjusted terms, the unemployment level fell to 4.37 million and the head of the Federal Labor Agency Frank-Juergen Weise said, â,"There has been a slight increase in seasonally adjusted terms, but that has more to do with the fact that the decline in July was very, very strong and the August figures were pushed up by the early cutoff date,â, giving an optimistic edge to the data, especially as the unemployment rate held at 10.6 percent.
Canadian Industrial Product Price Index (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: -0.2 %
Previous: 1.7 %
Outlook: Prices received by Canadian producers for their refined goods are expected to have fallen slightly last month. A consensus of a 0.2 percent contraction in the costs of factory goods finds its reference from both the demand side and the supply side. For the producerâ,"s part, the necessity to raise the prices of their goods to recoup or even keep up with their own costs has been reduced significantly. Since the beginning of August, many raw materials that are necessary components to factories to make their products have seen their prices drop markedly. Industrial metals like steel, iron, copper and gold have all declined, but the most dramatic reduction came out of the energy sector. On the other hand, demand may have been more mixed in its effects on viable price changes. Employment through the period was in a stiff correction, after net payrolls dropped for the third consecutive month in August, a statistic not seen since 1992. Despite this and another tick higher in the jobless rate though, the unemployment rate is still near its 30-year low. All in all, the industrial product price index could act as a leading indicator for Septemberâ,"s more closely watched CPI number and further depress the need to raise lending rates anytime in the near future.
Previous: Prices paid at the factory gate jumped 1.7 percent in the July for the biggest increase since February of 2004. Breaking the index down revealed that every single component group in the read was actually on the rise. While generous support was seen with the performance of energy refiners, as the value of their product reached all-time highs, its exclusion had still left a strong growth in the other sub-groups â,“ demonstrated by the 1.2 percent growth in the index stripped of its petroleum and coal influences. The other performers for the month came out of the auto and paper producers. Prices for vehicles and other transportation equipment grew 0.9 percent despite the fear that higher gasoline prices would severely dent demand. The pulp and paper group had actually grown 1.0 percent on the month. Confirming that the increase was not just the result of an immediate pass through of higher raw material costs, even prices for intermediate and finished goods were moving higher in July. The average price received for goods classified as intermediate rose 2.0 percent, while those that are finished advanced 1.1 percent.
Canadian Average Weekly Earnings (JUL) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: n/a
Previous: -0.3 %
Outlook: Canadiansâ," average weekly earnings could decline could drop for another month in July as employment became more questionable and advances in efficiency were beginning to slip. Though there is no official consensus for the July earnings report, a derivative of the same monthâ,"s employment data reported a slight increase in the annual average hourly wages indicator from a 3.5 percent pace to 3.7 percent. However despite this change, the relevant period could prove deceptive. Specifically for the month of July, the jobless rate grew to 6.4 percent from a 32-year low 6.1 percent. Further, net payrolls sank for the second consecutive month by 5,500 people, the first consecutive declines in nearly two years. Even more convincing for further declines in earnings is the trend in one of the countryâ,"s most vital sectors; manufacturing. Factories trimmed their staff by 33,000 in July, the biggest group layoff since January. This is more telling when it is considered that the sector has fired a net 224,000 Canadians since 2002, which represents nearly 10 percent of their total payrolls. If earnings continue to fall in July, it may suggest that spending by the important consumer group could weaken in the months ahead and further undercut growth.
Previous: The average weekly earnings of payroll employees fell 0.4 percent or $2.89 to C$747.16 in the month of June. This was comparable to a 0.2 percent drop in hourly earnings and a 0.3 percent decline in the average number of hours in the workweek. While many of the components of the overall read were looking at modest increases in wages, large cuts in a few key groups was providing the weight to pull the headline read lower. Over the month, the biggest drop in earnings came from healthcare sector with a 1.8 percent reduction. Not nearly as severe, but more substantial due to the number of employees in the industry, manufacturing workersâ," earnings fell 0.8 percent while those in the retail industry dipped 0.7 percent. This difference in wages contrasted to a 0.1 percent drop and 0.2 percent rise in the change in the number of employees for the same period respectively.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.