EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The pair is back below the 7 month trendline and is approaching trendline support drawn through 1.2456 and 1.2630 at 1.2652.  A break below there represents the break of a 4 month triangle and could trigger heavier selling.  On a shorter term basis, the EURUSD has retraced to the 38.2% of the 1.2829-1.2662 decline to 1.2725.  However, the rally to the 38.2% fibo may be just the first of 3 corrective legs.  A break above 1.2731 could see a test of the 61.8% at 1.2765.  The 9/22 low at 1.2778 is resistance and needs to hold in order to keep the short term wave structure bearish.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY continues to hover near the 117.50 level, between the 61.8% and 78.6% fibos of 118.28-116.07 (117.43/80).  A break below todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 117.32 could trigger selling to the confluence of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low / 50% fibo of 116.07-117.75 at 116.91.  A break below the 9/25 high at 116.74 instills confidence in the downside.  The 9/18 high at 118.28 must hold as resistance in order for the bearish scenario to play out.  The proximity of 118.28 limits upside risk as a result.  240 minute RSI is turning over from overbought levels and bearish divergence with RSI on the hourly reinforces potential downside risk.  A supporting line drawn through 113.95 and 115.55 is at 116.76 today and a daily close below there could be the beginning of a larger turn down.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable has plummeted and is just above the supporting line drawn through 1.8176 and 1.8602.  The line comes in at 1.8729 and a daily close below exposes the 9/11 low at 1.8602.  Daily oscillators exhibit negative slope and are now below midpoints.  Price has also declined below the 22 day SMA and the slope of that moving average is turning over as well.  This evidence bodes well for bears going forward.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.8852 is initial resistance.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ USDCHF is little changed as the pair has digested gains the past 24 hours, trading in a 40 pip range.  It appears that a bullish ascending triangle formation is forming and scope remains for a test of the 1.2525-1.2622 resistance zone.  It takes a break above the 9/19 low at 1.2482 for the bearish structure on the hourly to deteriorate.  A break below the aforementioned supporting trendline opens up the door for a test of the 8/21 low at 1.2182.  22 day momentum has turned up from its midpoint.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD is holding above the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.1028-1.1294 / 9/14 low at 1.1114/30.  Long wicks below the bodies of recent daily candles denote strong support at this juncture.  Wave structure remains bullish as the decline from 1.1294 follows a 5 wave rally from 1.1028 to 1.1294.  In addition, support is reinforced by the 78.6% of 1.1028-1.1294 at 1.1085.  A break above 1.1205 improves the outlook for bulls but it takes a dip below 1.1028 to negate bullish implications from the mentioned 5 wave rally.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie continues within the .7481-.7573 range.  The nearly two week consolidation has taken place following the decline from .7721, thus probability favors a break lower rather than higher.  The pair dipped below .7481 momentarily yesterday but has since rallied back to the .7500 figure.  A break below .7481 exposes the 61.8% of .7270-.7721 at .7442.  Daily oscillators are declining and below midpoints, which favors bears.  The 66 day SMA (3 month) has held as resistance since 9/11.  Support is reinforced by the 132 day (6 month) SMA but price is creeping below a 6 month trendline drawn through .7014 and .7270.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The decline that began on 9/26 has stalled at the 9/20 low at .6546.  The bounce has been unconvincing to this point as bulls have managed to push the pair to just .6587 today.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s commentary focused on the phenomenon that is a 100 pip move in NZDUSD and what that typically has meant for the currency pair.  Traditional technical indicators also resonate a bearish tone though.  CCI has declined from below 100, RSI has declined from below 70, and MACD slope is now negative.  A break below .6533 exposes the trendline drawn through .5927 and .6342 ââ,¬â€œ the line is at .6440 today.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s .6613 high is initial resistance.  Only a push above an intraday pivot low at .6650 from 9/26 negates the above view.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.