GBP/JPY â�,�“ GBPJPY is setting up for a breakout play as the pair has ranged between 220.17 and 223.23 since 9/13.  The market oscillates between periods of range and trend and tight consolidation periods often give way to the biggest breaks.  Our COT analysis has favored a weaker GBP and a stronger Yen in general.  Combine these two interpretations and the result is a break lower in GBPJPY.  Of course, a break above 222.23 negates this near term view.  Daily studies are turning more bearish by the day though.  22 day momentum is negative and MACD slope is now negative.

GBP/CHF â�,�“ We mentioned last week that â�,��"The pair may be running out of steam though as evidenced by bearish divergence with CCI, MACD and 22 day momentum.  This means is that momentum is slowing and that near term gains may be limited. â�,��"  turned lowerâ�,�.  GBPCHF has turned lower and this is now below the 9/25 low at 2.3403.  Trendline support drawn through 2.2538 and 2.3152 is just below current price near 2.3324.  This could provide a bounce but a break lower exposes the 9/11 low at 2.3152.  The dealer chart shows the formation of a downward sloping channel and price is nearing the support from that channel.  240 min RSI has entered oversold territory as well â�,�“ so the aforementioned daily trendline at 2.3324 may hold.

GBP/AUD â�,�“ GBPAUD has turned lower as well.  The pair has come into former resistance â�,�“ which could now be support at 2.5020/30.  MACD slope is now negative, CCI has turned below 100 and RSI has turned below 70.  The daily signals are overwhelmingly bearish now.  A break of current levels (2.5020/30) exposes the 9/14 low at 2.4873.  Yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at 2.5129 is initial resistance. 

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.