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Resilient Stock Market Rally Keeps Going
By Harry Boxer | Published  09/28/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Resilient Stock Market Rally Keeps Going

The market had a negative morning and a very positive afternoon.  It held key support and its resiliency kept it going with a very strong close and more net gains for the week.

The day started out with a move up right at the start to test yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s highs that fell short on the NDX and right near them on the S&P.  That resulted in a 5-wave stair-step decline that lasted until just before lunch hour.  At that point they had a serious test of Tuesdayââ,¬â"¢s lows, which held.  Then a sharp reversal and steady rally all afternoon brought them back up near their highs for the session.

Net on the day, the Dow closed at 11,718, up 29 Ã,¼, and the S&P 500 finished at 1339, up 2 Ã,½.  The Nasdaq 100 closed at 1661 Ã,½, up nearly 6, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 4.35 at 460.

Technicals were nominally positive by 17 to 15 on advance-declines on New York and 15 to 14 on Nasdaq. New York Stock Exchange advance-decline volume was barely ahead by a very nominal amount, basically a breakeven, on total volume of about 1.45 billion.  Nasdaq traded more than 1.7 billion and had about a 10 to 7 positive ratio.

TheTechTrader.com board  was very mixed, but there were some outstanding gainers today.  Align Technology (ALGN) on a positive legal judgment was up 3.76 on 24 1/3 million shares.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) on two pieces of strong news was up more than 5 points on 5 Ã,½ million, and broke out across a four-month resistance level.

Other gainers of note, former Chart of the Week and portfolio holding Chindex (CHDX) was up 1.76 on more than 1/3 rd of a million, which for that stock is very heavy, on news of the Chinese government approving their first PPO health plan in China.

Broadcom (BRCM) advanced 1.09, Akamai (AKAM) 1.82, crossing 50 for the just time in six years, and CMED up 1.34.

Apple Computer (AAPL) was up 60 cents, Interphase (INPH) up 50 cents, All Scripts Healthcare (MDRX) up 65 cents, and Simpletech (STEC)  up 77 cents on more than 1.2 million shares, tagging 9 for a new three-year high.

On the downside, loss leaders were NVE Corp. (NVEC),  which had a strong mid-afternoon but suffered a late and sharp reverse sell-off of more than 3 points and closed down 1.41.

PW Eagle (PWEI) was down 1.26, and Qualcomm (QCOM) 1.11.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, they came down hard late morning and severely tested support, but once again support held.  That was at price and moving average support on the hourly as well as the 5-minute charts.  S&P also held price support, so now weââ,¬â"¢ll be watching NDX 1645 and SPX 1333 Ã,½ as key short-term support.  Overhead resistance, which was tested late in the session, is at 1665 NDX and 1340 S&P.

Tomorrow is the end of the month and end of the quarter, so we may see some window dressing, which could bolster the indices higher and perhaps test the all-time highs on the Dow.  Iââ,¬â"¢m expecting a downside reversal potentially next week, although momentum is still strong to the upside and has NOT been broken.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.