EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD has bounced from the trendline drawn through 1.2456 and 1.2630 at 1.2660.  Trendline support is reinforced by 9/8, 9/11, 9/26 and 9/27 daily lows ranging from 1.2647 to 1.2669.  Daily oscillators are all sloping down and below midpoints.  However, it looks like a 5 wave decline is in place from 1.2829 to 1.2637, thus a corrective move higher is probable.  Resistance is at the confluence of Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high / the 50% of 1.2829-1.2637 at 1.2731/33.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY has pierced the 9/18 high at 118.28 and may be working its way higher towards the 4/11 high at 118.87 and the 2/3 high at 119.38.  Oscillators are divergent with price and overbought on both daily and intraday charts ââ,¬â€œ which leaves longs vulnerable to a pullback / reversal.  Upside risk remains until the mentioned 119.38 but a slip through the short term trendline on the hourly (see chart below) near 117.90 could trigger losses towards the 38.2% fibo of 116.07-118.39 at 117.51.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable has plummeted and is below the 2 month trendline drawn through 1.8176 and 1.8602.  The break below the line bodes well for the longer term bearish picture but 240 minute RSI is rising from below 30 ââ,¬â€œ indicating that there may be an interim bottom at 1.8632.  Initial resistance on a retrace is the 38.2% fibo of 1.9072-1.8632 at 1.8800.  A move below 1.8632 targets the 9/11 low at 1.8602.  Like EURUSD, it looks like 5 waves down from 1.9072 are in place, thus probability favors a corrective move higher.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF ran into a zone of resistance from the 9/19 high at 1.2570 and has retreated back below the 1.2500 figure.  It appears that a bullish ascending triangle is forming from the 5/15 low at 1.1919.  The supporting line from the triangle is at 1.2308 today.  Last week, the 22 day SMA has crossed above the both the 66 day and 132 day moving averages (1,3, and 6 month SMAs)., producing a longer term bullish signal.  Support before the aforementioned trendline is at the 61.8% of 1.2288-1.2567 at 1.2395.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD rally was ejected at the 61.8% of 1.1294-1.1085 at 1.2114 this morning.  This resistance is reinforced by the confluence of the 66 and 132 day (3 and 6 month) SMAs at 1.1209/16.  A push above there exposes the 9/20 high at 1.1294.  We have maintained a bullish stance against 1.1028 due to the 5 wave rally from 1.1028 to 1.1294 and the subsequent 3 wave decline from 1.1294 to 1.1085.  RSI on the 240 minute chart has crossed below 70, indicating that weakness could persist.  Fibo support is at the 61.8% of 1.1085-1.1218 at 1.1136.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ We have continues to reiterate that probability favors a break lower rather than higher.  The pair has broken below the range low at .7481 and is now testing fibo support at .7443 (61.8% of .7270-.7721).  Additional weakness exposes the 7/19 low at .7403.  This may very well be a 3rd wave (either a C or a 3) ââ,¬â€œ if it is, then weakness should persist until at least .7333 ââ,¬â€œ which is where wave A (or 1) would equal wave C (or 3).  The break of the recent range favors an impulsive move.  Resistance on a pullback is the former range low at .7481.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The decline that began on 9/26 has stalled just below the .6500 figure ââ,¬â€œ reaching .6486 this morning.  .6486 is the 61.8% of .6342-.6721.  Like other majors, it appears that 5 waves down are complete at .6486, thus probability favors a corrective move higher towards fibo resistance between .6576 (38.2% of .6721-.6486) and .6631 (61.8% of .6721-.6486).  22 day momentum is negative for the first time since 7/17.  A break below .6486 targets the trendline drawn through .5927 and .6342, which is at .6460 today.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.