UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence (SEP) (23:01 GMT; 19:01 EST)
Consensus:           87.0
Previous:              83.0

Outlook: UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 87 in September from an all-time low of 83 in August on the back of lower energy prices and receding Middle East tensions. The expected gain in September is more likely a bounce from lows than any significant recovery of mass consumer confidence. The employment outlook remains bleak though as the August index revealed that 44 percent of people believe there are fewer jobs available than in the month prior and wage growth continues to slow and lose pace with rising prices. Furthermore, inflation will continue to weigh on the minds of the UK consumer as the Bank of England has shown willingness to continue tightening as long as the economy proves to be resilient enough to avoid a major slowdown. A decrease in spending, which underlies higher borrowing costs, could very well destabilize the economy if energy prices adjust back to the upside and could bode ill for consumer confidence in the future.

Previous: Nationwide Consumer Confidence for the month of August fell to the lowest level ever seen at as rising energy costs continue to plague the pockets and bottom lines of both producers and consumers alike. An unexpected hike in interest rates caught consumers off guard as the outlook declined 6 points immediately following the surprising interest rate rise. Over the month, the future index fell to 81 versus 100 this time last year in reaction to rising fears over the deterioration of the labor market and moderation of housing prices over the last month. Consumers revised their optimism to pessimism over housing prices, as they now see them rising only 3.5 percent versus 4.2 percent in July. With interest rates on pause for now and ameliorating oil prices, a bounce to the upside may be expected in the near-term, but risk remains to the downside longer-term.

RBA Rate Decision (23:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus:        6.00%
Previous:            6.00%

Outlook: Australiaââ,¬â"¢s central bank is expected to leave the nationââ,¬â"¢s overnight lending rate unchanged at its five-and-a-half year high 6.00 percent.  The unanimous consensus among economists comes from concerns over both economic growth and inflation indicators.  For growth, the most recent report of second quarter expansion has set the tone for policy markers.  Gross domestic output for the three months ending with June measured 0.3 percent, the slowest pace in three years.  This data was not available to the RBA at its August meeting when the group decided to boost the overnight cash rate by 25 basis points.  On the other hand, more recent indicators linked to growth have supported a rebound in the third quarter.  Domestically, consumer confidence grew 12.5 percent in September according to the Westpac proprietary indicator, which was partially a reaction to unemployment still near 30-year lows.  Furthermore, while spending has spending habits have been slowed in the past three months, they were all positive.  Outside of consumer spending, the trade account has also improved in its most recent report while the factory activity has benefit cheaper raw material prices.  However, while create a convincing front for growth trends, its status as a major factor for this monthââ,¬â"¢s rate decision will likely be on the back burner as policy makers wait for the third quarter growth report.  Alternatively, inflation will likely remain a point for members to debate upon.  The most recent official, government measure of price growth accelerated to 4.0 percent in the second quarter.   On the other hand, the more recent TD Securities report of the same for September specifically contracted to 3.1 percent from a year ago. While both of these numbers make their own strong case, policy makers are expected to once again sit on the sidelines to await the official third quarter inflation read due on the 25th.

UK PMI Services (SEP) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus:          56.7
Previous:             56.5

Outlook: UK PMI Services for September is expected to soften slightly to 56.5 on lower energy costs and uncertainty regarding the future path of UK interest rates. Headline PMI services have eased over the past few months, but remain relatively high at 57.9. With Manufacturing PMI coming in markedly stronger recently, we look for service data to emulate as oil holds steady and the labor market continues to support domestic demand. The UK service sector has shown healthy growth and even though recent survey data is pointing to a slowdown ahead, the sector is still expected to perform well in September.

Previous: August PMI Services declined to 56.7 as business expectations fell to 70.6 from 72.2 on a bleak near-term outlook for the service sector. The UK service sector has shown healthy growth so far in 2006, but more recent PMI data indicates softer growth ahead. In the first quarter, service sector profitability rose to 19.9 percent from 19.1 percent in the previous three months, while manufacturing profitability reached 6.6 percent. However, the CBI third quarter consumer service business survey showed a sharp confidence drop over the past three months and the business outlook for the next three months slipped to its lowest level in three years. Higher crude costs and utility prices are seen as the causes behind the falling sentiment. Rising inflation and vigorous tightening by the BoE look to hamper growth in coming months as consumer demand looks to slide in the face of higher borrowing costs.

Euro-Zone Retail Sales (SEP) (09:00 GMT; 05:00 EST)
                     (MoM)         (YoY)
Consensus:     0.5%         2.0%
Previous:        0.6%          2.5%

Outlook: August retail sales are expected to decline to 0.5 percent from 0.6 percent in July as robust French consumption data could help to balance disappointing German figures. However, improved overall Euro-zone numbers indicate that growth and sales may not be so heavily dependent on Germany. Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in the three months to July, up from 0.5 percent in the three month to June and could indicate that consumption trends are improving. The recent declines in heating and oil prices should help increase consumer income, which together with an improving labor market bodes well for consumption in the upcoming quarter. The impending VAT hike should also prompt consumers to spend more before costs rise and should help near-term numbers. However, high commodity prices and a gradual build up in underlying inflation could mean downside risks for the consumption outlook further down the line.

Previous: Euro-zone retail sales in July sat at 0.6 percent as overall expansion increased at the fastest pace in recent periods. Private consumption, although no longer the best indicator of retail sales, firmed on the month as sales PMI survey data also improved to 53.8 in July. Although slightly soft in comparison to previous months, growth as measured by the index is still positive and indicative of an expansionary economy. With the ECB expected to hike again before year-end, retail sales could be expected to stall as consumer spending will likely be affected by any such move.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing (SEP) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:        56.0
Previous:           57.0

Outlook: Like its factory counterpart released before it, the Institute for Supply Managerââ,¬â"¢s report of service activity is expected to drop in September.  A consensus of a 1 point drop to a 56.0 register for the month is expected as housing trends stifles consumer spending habits that would otherwise find support from cheaper gasoline prices.  Services-based firms, like the rest of the market likely responded to steady decline in existing, new home sales gauges and pricing figures over the past few months.  For the month of July, new home sales, often a leading indicator for the market, fell 21.6 percent from a year ago.  This was the biggest drop over 12 months since 1994, while at the same time boosted inventories to an 11-year high.  Recently however, indicators of new, existing and pending home sales all increased for the month of August.  While the dampening effect of the overall trend has been obvious on consumer spending, it remains to be seen if it may lead to an initial correction in the near term.  However, further supporting a rebound in demand may have been the steady drop in gasoline prices, which likely lined Americansââ,¬â"¢ pockets and encouraged greater spending on services.  While the overall indicator will be important in its own right, the currency market will pay particular attention to the employment component as traders try to find the most reliable predictor for Fridayââ,¬â"¢s NFPs.

Previous:  The ISM non-manufacturing read rebounded from a ten-month low in August as prices paid by the firms eased.  For the month, the headline figure grew to 57.0 from 54.8 in July almost solely on the merit of a 2.4 point decline in the inflation component.  Crude oil prices began a momentous slide in the second half of August, giving companies an advantage in margins that have held constant on the consumer side.  Aside from this improvement for price growth however, many of the other sub-gauges were showing negative shifts.  New orders for the period fell 3.5 points to 52.1, while the forward looking figure of backlog orders fell below the 0.0-contractionary/expansionary level for the first time in recent history.  Even order growth from across the border has reached its lowest level in months.  Another change of note was the drop in the employment figure to 51.4.  The strength of the service sector is important to the overall health of the economy as it represents nearly 80 percent of economic expansion.  Looking ahead, improvements to the overall number based solely on inflation will be harder to sustain, and a rebound in demand may ultimately be needed to keep the figure in positive territory.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.