EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Bollinger band width has contracted to 119 pips.  The all time low is 115 (8/12/1998) ââ,¬â€œ and that is with synthetic DEM prices.  In any case, the tight Bollinger bands warn us that a breakout is on the horizon.  The 1998 scenario gave way to a 1,500 pip move over a 2 month span.  Additional strength from yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s 1.2665 low encounters trendline resistance near 1.2790 (drawn through 1.2938 and 1.2827).  Still the points to reference for breakouts are 1.2829 (9/22 high) and 1.2630 (9/15 low).

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY may finally be turning lower as 240 minute RSI is now below 50 and MACD slope is negative.  Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s inverse hammer candle is bearish as well.  Price remains within an upward sloping diagonal triangle ââ,¬â€œ which are often succeeded by violent declines.  A break below 116.07 would significantly improve the bearish argument.  A rally above 118.39 negates the interpretation and suggests that price is headed towards the 2/3 high at 119.38.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Wave structure suggests that cable is poised to rally past the 10/3 high at 1.8897.  The dip to 1.8785 looks like a 4th corrective wave.  The 5th wave would then complete a 5 wave bullish sequence from 1.8632.  Resistance in this case is at the 78.6% of 1.9072-1.8632 at 1.8977.  Short term momentum is now up as 240 minute RSI is above 50.  A dip below 1.8762 destroys the bullish structure.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Nothing has changed regarding the USDCHF in the last 24 hours.  The pair has rallied off of the 1.2400 figure and is headed back to the upper end of the ascending triangle (bullish) near 1.2600.  22 day momentum remains positive and RSI is steadily increasing (near 60 now).  The 200 day SMA is at 1.2587 and a break above would indicate a major change in trend.  Support remains the 10/2 low at 1.2404.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The impulsive rally to the 1.1300 figure reinforces the bullish bias against 1.1028.  It looks like the USDCAD may make one more high (above 1.1305) to complete a 5 wave rally from 1.1085 before a deeper retracement takes place.  Thus, near term potential for strength looks limited.  The 200 day SMA is just above at 1.1322.  A push above there would be more evidence of a long term change in trend.  Immediate support is todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.1218.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie has shown some life and rallied 50 pips off of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at .7416.  The break of the .7481 range low and the move below the 200 day SMA favors a longer term bearish bias.  .7481 remains initial resistance but the former range high at .7573 must hold in order to keep the bearish bias intact.  Current price is right at a trendline drawn through .7719 and .7554.  Rising oscillators on intraday charts point to a probable break higher of this line and eventual test of aforementioned resistance.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Kiwi is approaching the 78.6% fibo of .6721-.6486 at .6670.  240 minute RSI is close to overbought territory and a short term head and shoulders pattern is visible.  Price must remain below .6721 to keep the bearish structure intact so risk is limited at this point.  A dip below the 10/3 high at .6617 re-instills confidence in the downside.  A break below the 10/2 low at .6486 completes the h & s reversal pattern.