Swiss Unemployment Rate (SEP) (05:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
(Headline) (s.a.)
Consensus: 3.1% 3.3%
Previous: 3.1% 3.3%
Outlook: Swiss unemployment is set to remain unchanged for the fourth straight month, as many claim that economic growth beyond its peak will limit new hiring. Indeed, the headline figure may actually mask slowly growing unemployment, as the number of jobless claims rose to 123,074 in August. Leading the number higher, youth unemployment grew to 4.5 percent, while middle to senior age groups stayed flat. This coincided with worsening outlook on broader economic growth, as the KOF leading indicator fell for the first time in a year. This leads us to believe that risks remain to the downside for the Swiss labor market, with any addition in jobless claims to push the headline unemployment figure higher for the first time since December, 2005.
Previous: The broadest measure of employment strength remained unchanged through August, as a small decline in jobless claims was not enough to push the headline figure lower. The relatively unimpressive result prompted some to claim that the Swiss economy had reached the cyclical peak of economic growth, with leading indicators showing signs of slower expansion. Regardless, the labor market continues at its strongest levels since the end of 2002, when unemployment stood at a mere 2.8 percent. Markets will likely scrutinize any changes in the current level of employment, as it should provide a clearer picture of business health and optimism moving forward.
German Factory Orders (MoM) (AUG) (10:00 GMT; 06:00 EST)
Consensus: -0.5%
Previous: 1.8%
Outlook: German factory orders are anticipated to slow to -0.5 percent in August as demand is likely to have weakened. Additionally, orders should see as a correction from the huge gain in July of 1.8 percent. Retail sales from Germany have already posted weakly in July and August, which could indicate slowing household consumption. Furthermore, while business sentiment regarding the current situation has remained high, the outlooks have become increasingly pessimistic which could shine through in the manufacturing figures. Upside risk comes from manufacturing PMI figures, which unexpectedly held at 58.3 in September and showed increases in not only new orders, but also output prices and quantity of purchases, boding well for the manufacturing sector as a whole.
Previous: Factory orders in Germany during the month of July rose far more than expected at a rate of 1.8 percent, as both foreign and domestic demand for machines and plants boomed. Growth within the Euro-zone has helped to foster an environment where a strong labor market and more profitable companies have given a boost to everything from business investment to CPI. Manufacturers also increased output as purchases of big ticket items ahead of the 2007 VAT hike to 19 percent from 16 percent are likely to rise. While this should help to spur further growth throughout the remainder of 2006, 2007 could be quite a different story.
UK Industrial Production (SEP) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.1% 0.8%
Previous: 0.2% 0.4%
Outlook: The rate of Industrial Production growth likely headed lower through August, as lower commodity prices continue to weigh on energy-related output. Indeed, the energy sector most recently saw a 1.5 percent decline in July, which will likely continue through August as prices hit multi-month lows. The broader industrial production growth figure may be slightly misleading, however, as other sectors may look to improve on the month. After falling by the most since April, Textiles manufacturing may post a rebound in August as the onset of autumn boosts demand for processed goods. Likewise adding to improved outlook, Engineering and Allied Industries could post the fourth straight month of growth, as solid investment levels boosts the industry. Markets will wait and see whether the headline industrial production number can beat expectations and lift above sluggish performance.
Previous: Industrial production rebounded in July after falling 0.2 percent in the month of June. The increase was led by strong gains in the Chemicals and Man Made Fibres sector, as it posted an impressive 4.5 percent annualized growth rate on the month. Weighing down the number, however, was falling food and tobacco output. It shall be important to see gaining strength in the net production figure, as much of the speculation on future Bank of England interest rate hikes depends on a pickup in growth in the domestic economy.
Canadian Net Change In Employment (SEP) (07:00 GMT; 11:00 EST)
(Change) (Unemployment Rate)
Consensus: 15,000 6.4%
Previous: -16,000 6.5%
Outlook: Canadian employers are expected to have added a net 15,000 people to their payrolls over the month of September as a reported rebound in economic growth and significant drop in crude has brightened business leadersââ,¬â"¢ outlooks. The best indication for the expected increase in employment for the period comes from todayââ,¬â"¢s Ivey report for the same period. Measuring the spending habits of employers through a series of key questions, the indicator nearly matched expectations for an increase over August. Specifically from this read, the employment component produced a marked rebound from the previous monthââ,¬â"¢s seven month low. Over the past couple months, the employment gauge has shared a relatively high correlation to the change in the Labor Force Survey. Last month, the sub-gauge dropped 6.3 points while the employment report subsequently reported a 16,000 drop in payrolls, the biggest contraction in two years. If employment trends improve, expectations that consumer spending will be able to pick up the tab from weaker export activity will grow and GDP numbers will in turn likely improve.
Previous: Net employment unexpectedly fell for the third consecutive month in August by 16,000 people. This was the first instance since 1992 in which the measure has contracted three straight months, and the single monthââ,¬â"¢s decline was the biggest in two years. As the number of people that are employed has contracted, the jobless rate has also increased. In August, the unemployment rate ticked higher to a seven-month high, 4.5 percent of the available labor force. The weak string in employment has been one of the highlights for traders in supporting the Bank of Canadaââ,¬â"¢s decision to cut its string of interest rates short in July. Following the heels of the GDP report for the second quarter showing the slowest pace of growth in three years, this employment number led the market to expect the Canadian economy would further stall with a lack of consumer spending. However, while the employment number was disappointing, wage numbers were still drawing optimists. Average hourly wages were moving ahead at a pace of 3.7 percent yearly growth, well beyond the 2.4 percent rate of inflation.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (SEP) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Change) (Unemployment Rate)
Consensus: 120,000 4.7%
Previous: 128,000 4.7%
Previous: Nonfarm payrolls printed at 128,000 in August, nearly in line with the 125,000 number predicted by economists. This periodââ,¬â"¢s report marked the fifth consecutive month in which employment has grown at a steady pace just above the 100,000 mark and within arms reach of the 130,000 jobs Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said are needed to lead the economy on a stable growth path. At the same time, while the sizable fluctuations in NFPs have cooled in recent months, the labor market is still at impressive levels. For the month, the jobless rate was able to tick lower to 4.7 percent, slightly above the five-year low set in May and June. Looking within the data, most of the improvement in payrolls came from service-based industries. Employers in the service sector added 134,000 new people to their staff. Offsetting this rise somewhat, manufacturers laid off a net 11,000. Elsewhere in the labor numbers, month-to-month income numbers were also starting to slow. After Julyââ,¬â"¢s strong 0.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings, August followed up with a 0.1 percent increase. However, the yearly number is still performing at enviable levels. Americanââ,¬â"¢s earned 3.9 percent from August 2005, the fastest pace income of growth in five years.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.