EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD has broken out of a 5 month triangle pattern.  Fridayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.2570 is just above the 7/26 low at 1.2557.  A break below there exposes the 7/19 low at 1.2456.  Weekly RSI is below 50 for the first time since 3/24 (when EURUSD was at 1.2035).  Fridayââ,¬â"¢s close below the lower Bollinger band (daily) following the historically tight bands favor a breakout to the downside.  The 10 day SMA crosses below the 20 day on Friday as well.  The 9/26 low at 1.2637 is initial resistance.
 
USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY broke through the 10/2 high at 118.39 and took off for 100 more pips.  The pair remains below the 2/3 high at 119.38 but a push above there exposes the 12/5/2005 high at 121.38.  The pattern since 7/19 has taken the form of an ending diagonal.  This is a terminal pattern and usually ends in a thrust in the direction of the slope of the diagonal (in this case up).  This may be what is happening now.  Price often extends to a Fibonacci multiple of the widest point of the diagonal triangle.  In this case, the 138.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci levels are potential ending points for this rally.  The 138.2% of 117.88-113.95 happens to be 119.38 (2/3 high) and the 161.8% is at 120.30.  A break back below 118.39 would suggest that the thrust higher is complete.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ A head and shoulders continuation pattern has formed from the 9/11 low at 1.8602.  The neckline is just below current price near 1.8640.  A break below targets the 61.8% of 1.8090-1.9144 at 1.8494.  The top of the left shoulder at 1.8897 is resistance (10/3 high).  Like EURUSD, the 10 day SMA crosses below the 20 day SMA on Friday.  

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF closed above the upper Bollinger band (daily) and the 200 day SMA on Friday.  It was the first close above the closely watched moving average since 4/14.  More importantly, this may be the break of the 5 month ascending triangle.  The pair did exceed the previous high (1.2622) but did not close above it.  A close above Fridayââ,¬â"¢s high (1.2633) would bolster bullish prospects.  240 minute RSI is overbought so a corrective move lower is possible.  Support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2288-1.2633 at  1.2502.     

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The impulsive rally to the 1.1300 figure reinforces the bullish bias against 1.1028.  The rally has stalled though and declining intraday oscillators leave open the possibility of a deeper retracement towards the 61.8% of 1.1085-1.1305 at 1.1169.  A daily close above the 200 day SMA, currently at 1.1318, would reinforce the bullish bias against 1.1085.  A possible 5 month head and shoulders continuation pattern clouds the picture.  The neckline is at 1.1063.  A takes a decline below there to in order to complete the pattern and suggest that prices are headed lower.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie has rallied off of Fridayââ,¬â"¢s low at .7413 following bullish divergence with oscillators on the 240 minute chart.  Still, the break of the .7481 range low and the move below the 200 day SMA favors a longer term bearish bias.  .7481 remains initial resistance but the former range high at .7573 must hold in order to keep the bearish bias intact.  A trendline drawn through .7719 and .7554 is just above current price.  Improving intraday oscillators favor a break of the line and a test of aforementioned resisance.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Little is changed regarding the Kiwi.  A short term head and shoulders pattern is visible.  Price must remain below .6721 to keep the bearish structure intact.  A break below the 10/2 low at .6486 completes the h & s reversal pattern.  Bears would then set sights on the 9/11 low at .6342.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.