EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD has continued to decline following the break below the 5 month triangle on Friday.  However, 240 minute RSI is increasing from below 30, which favors at least a corrective move higher.  Initial resistance is the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.2765-1.2516 / 10/9 and 10/10 highs at 1.2611/13.  Also, 21 period daily CCI is rather extended at below -100.  Still, the break from the 5 month triangle is bearish and suggests that risk is to the downside.  The 200 day SMA is at 1.2468 ââ,¬â€œ very close to the 7/19 low at 1.2456.  A break below there may see the decline accelerate.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY has pushed through the 2/3 high at 119.38 but held below the 120.00 figure ââ,¬â€œ which is psychological resistance.  The pattern since 7/19 has taken the form of an ending diagonal.  This is a terminal pattern and usually ends in a thrust in the direction of the slope of the diagonal (in this case up).  This may be what is happening now.  Price often extends to a Fibonacci multiple of the widest point of the diagonal triangle.  In this case, the 161.8% Fibonacci level is a potential ending point for this rally.  The 161.8% of 117.88-113.95 is at 120.30.  A break back below 118.39 would suggest that the thrust higher is complete but it takes a decline below the trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 to suggest that USDJPY has formed a significant top.  That trendline is at 117.00 today and increases about 10 pips per day.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Similar to EURUSD, RSI on the 240 minute Cable chart is increasing from below 30 ââ,¬â€œ suggesting that a move higher is underway.  As such, the low at 1.8515 from this morning must hold in order to keep a short term bullish bias.  Fibonacci resistance going forward is at the 38.2% of 1.8897-1.8515 at 1.8661 and the 61.8% at 1.8751.  However, the daily close yesterday below the trendline drawn through 1.8090 and 1.8176 and the 9/11 low at 1.8602 is suggestive of an extended decline.  The next bearish target is the 7/25 low at 1.8383.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF has continued to push higher following the break above the 9/15 high at 1.2622.  Price has rallied to just below the 61.8% fibo of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2732 and turned lower.  5 waves up from 1.2404 to 1.2721 suggest that a setback is in order.  Fibonacci support begins at the 38.2% retracement at 1.2600.  The 200 SMA is at 1.2548 and is now support.  Price above the 200 day SMA keeps the longer term bias bullish.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The break above the 10/4 high at 1.1305 bolsters the longer term bullish bias and exposes the 7/24 high at 1.1456.  Also promising for the longer term bullish outlook is the close above the 200 day SMA yesterday.  After rallying to 1.1370 ââ,¬â€œ the pair USDCAD has come off to below 113.50 and Fibonacci support begins at the 38.2% of 1.1209-1.1370 at 1.1309.  Support is reinforced with former resistance (now support) at 1.1305.  Bearish divergence with RSI on the 240 minute in overbought territory favors a test of the 1.1305/09 area.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie has pushed above the resistance line drawn through .7719 and .7554.  This combined with increasing short term oscillators (240 minute and 60 minute) favors higher prices with initial resistance at the former range low (former support) at .7481.  As is the case with a few other majors, the AUDUSD has broken below and is holding below the 200 day SMA ââ,¬â€œ which is at .7477 and reinforces resistance at .7481.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Little is changed regarding the Kiwi.  A short term head and shoulders pattern is visible.  Price must remain below .6721 to keep the bearish structure intact.  A break below the 10/2 low at .6486 completes the h & s reversal pattern.  Bears would then set sights on the 9/11 low at .6342.  A rally of the trendline drawn through .6342, .6486, and .6539 has pushed above the .6600 figure but prices remain trapped in consolidation until a break above .6721 or below .6486.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.