EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD slipped to the 1.2500 figure this morning before finding bids.  240 minute RSI is increasing from below 30, which favors at least a corrective move higher.  Initial resistance is the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.2765-1.2500 at 1.2600.  The last 7 days have all been down days.  Going back 10 years (using synthetic prices before 1999), this has happened 9 times (10 including this latest instance).  6 of the 9 times, the next day was an up day and the average close from the open was +42 pips.  The chart below shows all the instances that the instance has occurred (there were 2 X in a row in 1997 and 3 X in a row in 2003).  In the broader sense â�,�“ it appears that the phenomenon tends to give way to a corrective move higher, if only a small one (in 1 instanceâ�,�¦there is a reversal).

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY has pushed made one more high at 119.83 but held below the 120.00 figure â�,�“ which is psychological resistance.  The pattern since 7/19 has taken the form of an ending diagonal.  This is a terminal pattern and usually ends in a thrust in the direction of the slope of the diagonal (in this case up).  This may be what is happening now.  Price often extends to a Fibonacci multiple of the widest point of the diagonal triangle.  In this case, the 161.8% Fibonacci level is a potential ending point for this rally.  The 161.8% of 117.88-113.95 is at 120.30.  A break back below 118.39 would suggest that the thrust higher is complete but it takes a decline below the trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 to suggest that USDJPY has formed a significant top.  That trendline is at 117.10 today and increases about 10 pips per day.  RSI poked through 70 yesterday â�,�“ which doesnâ�,��"�t happen that often on a daily.  Notice the last few times that RSI crossed below 70 â�,�“ the danger lies in an extended move higher.  Such was the case in 2005.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable is little changed.  Bulls made an attempt on 1.8600 last night but could only hold price above the figure for a moment.  The low at 1.8515 from yesterday has held.  Price is below the trendline drawn through 1.8090 and 1.8176 but we would like to see two days close below in order to establish confidence in the downside.  Two days closing below would favor a break lower but a bounce may challenge the upper end of what is looking like a triangle (on the daily).  The upper end of the triangle is near 1.9000.  Fibonacci resistance going forward is at the 38.2% of 1.8897-1.8515 at 1.8661 and the 61.8% at 1.8751.  The next bearish target is the 7/25 low at 1.8383.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has challenged the 61.8% fibo of 1.3235-1.1919 at 1.2732 (high at 1.2742 today).  Chart congestion in this area reinforces resistance.  RSI has crossed below 70 from yesterday and bearish divergence with CCI and momentum point to stalling / corrective move lower.  A trendline through 1.2288, 1.2404, and 1.2488 is resistance at 1.2572 (line increases about 7 pips every 4 hours).  A line parallel to the aforementioned line and extended from 1.2567 intersects the high at 1.2742 â�,�“ this is suggestive of a top.  A drop through 1.2633 instills more confidence in the downside.  A break above 1.2742 negates the immediate bearish interpretation and could lead to gains towards the 4/21 high at 1.2822.

USD/CAD â�,�“ The USDCAD shot through the 78.6% fibo of 1.1456-1.1028 at 1.1364 yesterday and extended to 1.1386 today.  The pair extended itself from the 200 day SMA â�,�“ which bolsters the longer term bullish implications.  The pair may need to correct a bit more before aggressive buying comes in.  RSI on the hourly has slipped below 50 and gives scope to a deeper correction.  The 38.2% fibo of 1.1210-1.1386 at 1.1319 is initial support.

AUD/USD â�,�“ We mentioned yesterday that â�,��"the Aussie has pushed above the resistance line drawn through .7719 and .7554.  This combined with increasing short term oscillators (240 minute and 60 minute) favors higher prices with initial resistance at the former range low (former support) at .7481.â�,�  The pair has pushed through initial .7481 resistance and probes the .7500 handle at the moment.  The former range of .7500-.7573 could prove to be formidable resistance.  240 minute RSI is at 66 and 60 minute RSI is overbought at 73.   

NZD/USD â�,�“ Little is changed regarding the Kiwi.  A short term head and shoulders pattern is visible.  Price must remain below .6721 to keep the bearish structure intact.  A break below the 10/2 low at .6486 completes the h & s reversal pattern.  Bears would then set sights on the 9/11 low at .6342.  A rally of the trendline drawn through .6342, .6486, and .6539 has pushed above the .6600 figure but prices remain trapped in consolidation until a break above .6721 or below .6486.  Price is almost at the apex of a triangle and pivot points for a breakout are .6657 on the high side and .6539 on the low side.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.