Japanese Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (AUG) (23:50 GMT; 19:50 EST)
Consensus:             0.8%
Previous:               -0.2%

Outlook:  Japanâ�,��"�s tertiary index, a gauge of money spent on services including retailing and communications, is expected to jump 0.8 percent in the month of August. A rise in spending would be in line with improvements in the most recent reading of the Eco Watchers survey. The â�,��"man-in-the-streetâ�,� assessment posted above the 50-boom/bust level for the second month in a row at 51.0. Additionally, total retail sales in the month of August rebounded 2.0 percent and could signal that demand for overall services felt the same effects. Downside risk comes from shaky wage growth, as companies who have seen high yields from booming foreign demand remain reluctant to pass on profits to employees.

Previous: The July reading of the tertiary index slipped 0.2 percent as household demand slowed. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui attributed the weaker spending to bad weather, which kept shoppers at home. A breakdown of the data showed that wholesale demand was dragged 0.4 percent lower by weak sales of tobacco during the month, which was a correction from the brisk sales documented ahead of a tax increase that took effect on July 1.  Although Governor Fukui also commented that the driver of Japan's economic growth will gradually shift from corporate to consumer spending, a significant rise in consumption has yet to be seen, as annualized real earnings growth continues to decline.

UK Consumer Price Index (SEP) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
                          (MoM)           (YoY)
Consensus:         0.1%            2.4%
Previous:            0.4%            2.5%

Outlook:  Price growth in the United Kingdom is expected to have exceeded the central bankâ�,��"�s target rate for the sixth consecutive month in September.  Contributions to the CPI gauge come on the part of strong wage demand from consumers and equally paced spending in turn.  Second quarter nominal demand, a measure of spending, grew 6 percent.  This was near the high end of the range set out by BoE Governor Mervyn King.  This has lead the central banker to warn of the possibly tough wage negotiations in the coming months as Britons look for greater compensation to cover higher utility bills.  In the most recent wage numbers, earnings for the three months through July accelerated to a 15-month high 4.4 percent.  Another area of interest for the BoE is growth in the money supply.  Green board members Tim Beasley and Andrew Sentance have both shown their discomfort with the money supply growing at its fastest pace in 16 years in the year through August.  While these two indicators are specifically taxing for inflation pressures, changes in energy prices over the month should also play a significant role in the CPI read.  Crude oil prices dropped nearly 25 percent from the middle of August through September.  This has in turn led to easing in the already released PPI output prices and noticeably cheaper national gasoline prices.  Despite the expected affects of energy, if September CPI stays above the central bankâ�,��"�s target rate, another hike could still be in the cards for November.

Previous: Inflation in Europeâ�,��"�s second largest economy accelerated to a 2.5 percent rate in the year through September, matching the fastest pace in 9 years.  Price growth was stoked by demand for recreational and consumer-based goods that soundly outpaced a decline in airfares prices that have resulted from the initial drop in energy prices.  When the volatile components of the measure was stripped out, core inflation had in turn ticked higher by 0.2 percentage points to a 1.1 percent rate.  Confirming the pressures in both the headline and core figures, recent comments by the Governor King suggest the Bank of England may err on the side of more aggressive monetary policy in the future.  King said there was a â�,��"50-50 chanceâ�,� inflation would surpass 3 percent by the end of this year on expensive university fees, energy and food prices.  Supporting the possibility of further rate hikes before the year closes out, the Retail Price Index, often used as a benchmark for the costs of living, accelerated to its fastest pace since December of 2004.

German ZEW Survey (OCT) (09:00 GMT; 05:00 EST)
                     (Economic Outlook)         (Current Situation)
Consensus:             -20.0                                42.0
Previous:                -22.2                                 38.9

Outlook:  The German ZEW economic survey is expected to show that business optimism improved through the month of October. Though analysts predict that outlook on future economic growth will stay well into pessimistic territory, a strong current situation figure could bolster the case for medium-term expansion. Leading optimism higher, a sharp decline in commodity prices has reduced input costs for German producers and boosted previously shrinking profit margins. Clearly, however, even the most bullish of Euro bulls should acknowledge that Economic Sentiment readings remain at 7-year lows, as expectations of higher borrowing costs and a higher German VAT tax dampen growth expectations. We will subsequently wait and see whether Octoberâ�,��"�s survey results will mark a turn in growth expectations, with any strongly positive surprises likely to lead the euro higher against other currency pairs.

Previous: German businesses were the most pessimistic on the future of domestic expansion in seven years, leading the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey to -10.2 in September. Expectations of further ECB interest rate hikes and a higher domestic Value-Added Tax weighed on executivesâ�,��"� outlook, leading the euro lower against other currency pairs. Given that Germany is the EMUâ�,��"�s largest economy, any fears over substantively lower expansion certainly hurts chances for broader Euro-Zone growth. More recent developments should bolster the case for an improvement in the ZEW result, but sentiment at historic lows may limit a material rebound in the headline survey reading.

US Producer Price Index (SEP) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                          (MoM)             (YoY)
Consensus:        -0.7%              1.4%
Previous:             0.1%              3.7%

Outlook:  The US Producer Price Index looks to edge lower for the first time since February, as swift declines in energy prices limit the upside in headline input costs growth. Indeed, with oil as much as 23 percent off of Augustâ�,��"�s highs through the month, underlying fundamentals suggest that Producer Prices will move lower in the medium term. Though the market has largely discounted a drop in the headline result, inflation watchers will likely pay more attention to developments in the Core prices figure. Excluding food and energy costs, Producer Prices are expected to gain 0.2 percent in September. As a result, watch for surprise developments in this key inflation measure. Any substantive prints above or below median estimates could spark volatile moves in the USD on renewed Fed interest rate change speculation.

Previous: Producers prices continued steadily higher through August, as the headline index gained 3.7 percent on the previous yearâ�,��"�s number.  Of more important note, however, core price growth came in well-below expectations with PPI excluding Food and Energy dropping the most since April, 2003. This solidified the case for a sustained pause in any overnight lending changes by the US Federal Reserve. Moving forward, however, Fed-watchers will scrutinize future reports to gauge the likelihood of rate changes in the final quarter of the year. Synthetic forward rates show that traders have priced in an approximately 50 percent chance of a further 25 basis point hike through December, but any large surprises in upcoming inflation data could quickly move interest rates above or below current levels.

US Net Foreign Security Purchases (TICS) (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:               $56.0B
Previous:                  $32.9B

Outlook:  Foreign interest in American securities is expected to rebound in August as debt and equity gauges advanced over the period.  Net Foreign Security Purchases (commonly referred to as TICS) are expected to post a $56 billion deficit to make up for Julyâ�,��"�s slightest positive gap in over a year.  From the three primary asset groups, purchasing activity is expected to pick up in all of them.  Corporate and government debt over the month of August will have likely drawn in more foreign interest on interest rate differentials.  While the benchmark lending rate in the US passed unchanged through August, expected slowing in other nations monetary policy will hold the strong carry intact.  Furthermore, as the globe economies start to print weakening growth numbers in the wake of expensive energy prices, the worldâ�,��"�s biggest is expected to weather the burden and make a soft landing.  Perhaps the biggest change however will come on the part of equities.  From Julyâ�,��"�s swing low, the SP 500 Index rose nearly 85 points by the end of August to close in on highs set earlier in the year.  Aside from the components aspect tomorrow though, the real interest in the TICS data will come through in its comparison to the same monthâ�,��"�s good and services trade balance.  The trade deficit hit a record deficit in August, though the subsequent reaction was muted by expectations of a contraction in the months ahead.  If the TICS number is able to capitalize on these forecasts and report a strong rebound, worries over the trade accounts could ease and the dollar strengthen.

Previous: Foreign investors bought a net $32.9 billion in US assets in July, the least since May of last year.  Interest in US assets shrank through the month as treasury assets suffered under a yet to be capped 17 consecutive rate hikes and range trading near recent lows in major stock indices.  Over the month, net inflows in equities grew to $10.4 billion.  Further interest in stocks was curtailed by a rebound in emerging markets.  Finally ending a two-month slide, emerging market stocks were an attractive investment for traders looking for more assets known to be volatile and lucrative.  Elsewhere, treasury purchases amounted to $6.6 billion over the period, the least since April, and agency debt cooled to $18.5 billion.  These debt instruments continued to suffer under steadily rising interest rate hikes, but the attraction to higher yield on these instruments was also in jeopardy grew increasingly closer to ending its rate regime.

Bank of Canada Rate Decision (13:00 GMT; 09:00 EST)
Consensus:                 4.25%
Previous:                    4.25%

Outlook:  On the whole, trends in Canadian data continue to support a strong underlying economy; but outlook and current figures pertaining to inflation are likely to head off the need for anymore rate hikes from Bank of Canada for at least the remainder of the year.  Looking over the number of indicators that have printed since the last policy meeting, it is easy to see the currents of strong growth.  Leading the pack with the least timely data, GDP in July was able to rebound over the month of July.  Showing the contribution made from the weighty consumer component, retail sales for the same period grew 1.5 percent, the first positive read in three months.  Providing more timely reports, a number of indicators were throwing in their support for a more exaggerated rebound in growth.  As a somewhat accurate measure of the consumer sector, net employment in September grew for the first time in four months.  Whether this will translate into greater spending is still questionable.  Further, the manufacturing sector has shown some level of strength with the Ivey PMI firming last month; which could be partially influenced by the improvement in Augustâ�,��"�s trade figure.  While these are promising numbers for the economy, outlooks and current inflation figures will effectively offset the temporary hawkishness.  Trade figures and factory activity are expected to sag moving forward as a drop in energy prices and a stubbornly expensive currency wears away value.  For the domestic market, housing starts are at their lowest level in over a year and the employment improvement comes after the longest string of contractions since 1992.  This aside though, the final say will likely rest with the lack of necessary price pressure in the consumer basket.  Augustâ�,��"�s headline CPI ran at a 2.1 percent annual pace, while the core figure kept to 1.5 percent.  If this wasnâ�,��"�t enough, expectations for Septemberâ�,��"�s price gauge are factoring in the significant decline in gasoline prices and the steady easing of housing values.  Little is expected from the central bank tomorrow, but any comments to the effect of a cut in foreseeable future, or inversely should there still be concern over inflation risks; the Canadian dollar would respond.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.