Swiss Trade Balance (SEP) (06:15 GMT; 02:15 EST)
Consensus:           SFr 1.35B
Previous:              SFr 0.54B

Outlook:  The trade surplus in Switzerland is anticipated to widen to 1.35 billion francs in the month of September, as exports likely got a boost from a weaker Swissie. Additionally, the Euro-zone economy, which purchases nearly 63 percent of Swiss exports, proved to be particularly resilient in the month of September, with both consumers and businesses more likely to purchase foreign items. On the import side, easing crude and other petroleum product prices should help to lower values and lend a boost to the trade balance. Overall, the surplus should remain strong and underpin solid economic growth in Switzerland.

Previous: The Swiss trade balance dropped to 0.54 billion francs during the month of August as exports fell 1.7 percent to 13.24 billion francs. Economic growth throughout the Euro-zone, the largest composite of buyers of Swiss products, started to show signs of slowing. Import demand also weakened the balance, as consumption within Switzerland remains buoyant. However, since exports make up almost half of Swiss GDP, the lack of foreign demand could prove to become problematic for Switzerland and cut into growth figures, which has been a major reason for the Swiss National Bank to set forth on a series of rate hikes starting in late 2005.

UK Retail Sales (SEP) (08:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
                          (MoM)              (YoY)
Consensus:          0.4%               4.1%
Previous:             0.3%                4.3%

Outlook:  Retail sales in the UK are expected to rise 0.4 percent in the month of September as lower petrol prices will have left more disposable income for consumers. A gain in the sales figure would be in line with the CBI headline index for the same month, which indicated robust retail sales, with the balance improving to 14 from 12.  Furthermore, a tightening labor market helped to contribute to more optimistic sentiment in September, as GfK consumer confidence rose to negative 7 from negative 8. Traders and central bankers alike will be looking towards the results of retail sales growth, as a gain would signal that economic expansion has been strong enough to keep domestic demand buoyant.

Previous: UK retail sales rebounded 0.3 percent in August as cooler weather and rising house prices encouraged shoppers to spend on household goods, mail-order items and clothing. While the labor market continued to tighten, the improvements failed to seep into wage price growth, which is likely to have capped more significant jumps in the retail sales figure. Nevertheless, an ever-buoyant housing market has helped to prop up British demand as asset values swell.

Canadian International Securities Transactions (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:          C$3.000B
Previous:             C$3.100B

Outlook:  International investment in Canadian assets is expected to slow in August to a C$3 billion surplus as investors found more attractive yields in other countriesââ,¬â"¢ debt instruments.  While usually not holding a high correlation with the Canadian figure, this monthââ,¬â"¢s US TICS data will likely have some effect.  In August the net foreign capital inflow into US investments grew to a record $116.8 billion.  While this may reveal greater demand from relatively high returns from a reliable country, it also means that more of it went to the United States instead of finding its way into Canadaââ,¬â"¢s coffers.  Nonetheless, appreciation in the countryââ,¬â"¢s main stock index and benchmark government bond were most likely beacons for investors.  In August, the SP/TSX Composite advanced nearly 600 points to 12,200.  However this investment gauge prints, FX traders will use it to draw comparisons with the physical trade account in order to ascertain whether capital inflows are capable of propping the Canadian dollarââ,¬â"¢s high level while the economy feels the pinch.

Previous: Foreigners bought a net C$3.4 billion worth of Canadian securities in July, following the previous monthââ,¬â"¢s deficit ââ,¬â€œ the first this year.  From the breakdown of the three main asset classes, bounds were undoubtedly the biggest contributor to the rebound.  International purchases of bonds totaled C$3.98 billion for the month, the most since November of 2004.  Sudden run in demand came as the global economy adapted to the notion that the Bank of Canada would put a cap in further interest rate hikes that had brought the base overnight lending rate up to 4.25 percent.  The same was not true of money market paper oddly enough.  A net C$2.4 billion was sold over the month as investors sought the higher yield from the neighbor to the south.  Also providing a boost in the overall gauge was interest in equities.  Stock purchases grew $1.559 billion over the period, partially driven by the rebound off of recent lows.

US Leading Indicators (SEP) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:           0.3%
Previous:             -0.2%

Outlook:  The index of leading indicators in the US is anticipated to rebound 0.3 percent in the month of September after falling 0.2 percent in August. The strength should be led by the jump in the University of Michigan sentiment survey, which is a component of the index and jumped to 85.4 in September from 82.0. Other positive factors include the 2.4 percent gain in the S&P 500 throughout the month along with increases in the M2 measure of supply. On the flip side, the increasingly flat yield curve, weaker results in the factory workweek, and decreasing ISM supplier deliveries create downside risk for this monthââ,¬â"¢s result.

Previous: The US index of leading indicators once again slipped 0.2 percent in the month of August, bringing the 6-month annualized change to -1.2 percent and holding in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month. Building permits proved to be the biggest pitfall of the August result, as the housing sector looked to be in a freefall. The yield curve component and jobless claims both served as a negative for the second month in a row. However, the index got a boost from stock prices and money supply, which posted in positive territory and are expected to support the leading indicator going into September.

Philadelphia Fed Survey (OCT) (16:00 GMT; 12:00 EST)
Consensus:           7.0
Previous:             -0.4

Outlook:  The Philly Fedââ,¬â"¢s manufacturing survey is expected to rebound into expansionary territory after falling below the 0.0 level for the first time in three years last month.  A market consensus of a 7.0 figure for the current month would be a modest change considering the usually volatile indicator, but any move back above the boom/bust level would be welcome by dollar bulls.  Recently, speculation for a positive turn has been facilitated by the similar release out of New York.   The Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly accelerated to its fastest pace in four months when it printed earlier this week.  From its breakdown, it was obvious the rebound was not due to firmer demand over measured period, but rather though favorable price differentials between the input bill and the amount received for finished goods.  While a similar situation in the Philly report could be construed as temporary, cheaper energy will likely have an effect for most of the sectors of the economy.   This means spending in the consumer sector and business sector with the excess disposable income could fill in for the normalization after the price shock is factored in.  The market will look forward to all the major regional factory reports to tick higher for October on price improvements.  Otherwise, if they donââ,¬â"¢t, initial weakness reported by the Beige Book could be confirmed for the Fed.

Previous: Factory activity in the Philadelphia area shrank for the first time in years in September as orders and sales fell for the first time in months.  Besides marking the lowest level in three years, the change in the manufacturing activity gauge was also the biggest in since the beginning of 2001.  Much of this dramatic decline could was isolated specifically in the new orders and shipments components.  Sales measured through the shipments gauge slid to negative 6.8 following months of double digit positive numbers.  Similarly, the demand-tracking new order figure fell shrank for the first time in months following a positive 15.7 read the month before.  Despite this large decline however, there were a few factors helping to stave off a sharper drop: namely prices and employment.   The prices paid component eased for the second month in a row led by the substantial easing in energy prices, while those received had grew or held steady for at least four months.  Also, current employment conditions improved as the steady hiring pace Fed Chairman Bernanke said was needed for stable growth continued.  Optimism that the job market would stabilize in the future was not present  though, as the forecast for six months ahead fell to its lowest level since May.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.