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Dollar Looking for a Bottom
By Jamie Saettele | Published  10/20/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Looking for a Bottom

EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD may have completed a 3 wave corrective move higher just below the 61.8% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2642.  240 minute RSI has rolled over from above 70 and the rally stalled at the 20 day SMA.  Resistance is reinforced just above 1.2642 by a trendline drawn through 1.2827 and 1.2765.  A break below the 10/17 high at 1.2565 suggests that a top is in place at 1.2642.  A break above 1.2642 targets the 61.8% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2657 and the 78.6% at 1.2704.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY has continued its slide from 119.87 and found support above the 50% fibo of 116.07-119.87 at the 118.00 figure (low today is at 118.02).  It is possible that the decline from 119.87 to 118.02 was the final leg of a 3 wave corrective move lower.  However, scope remains for a decline to the 61.8% of 116.07-119.87 at 117.53.  Only a break below the 5 month trendline drawn through 108.96 and 116.07 would turn the daily picture bearish.  That line is at 117.55 today.      

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable soared past the 10/18 high at 1.8738 yesterday and the pair is now above 1.8800.  240 minute RSI remains overbought  - a cross below 70 would favor a reversal lower.  Additional gains probe the 61.8% of 1.9072-1.8515 at 1.8859.  Resistance is reinforced by a resisting channel line at that level.  A break below the short term trendline drawn through 1.8522 and 1.8663 would favor the downside ââ,¬â€œ that line is at 1.8711 today.   

USDCHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF plummeted yesterday to the confluence of the 20 and 200 day SMAs near 1.2550.  Daily oscillators have declined but remain above midpoints.  Price remains above the 20 day SMA, which maintains a positive slope.  A push through the 10/17 low at 1.2638 re-instills confidence in the upside but a break below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.2546 targets the 61.8% of 1.2288-1.2769 at 1.2473. 

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD continues its descent and is now testing the 50% of 1.1085-1.1413 at 1.1249.  The decline is taking on an impulsive look, which clouds the larger bullish pattern on the daily.  Additional support is at the 61.8% at 1.1210.  Bullish divergence with oversold RSI on the hourly favors a rally attempt.  It takes a break above the 1.1341 in order to destroy the short term bearish structure.
 
AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Aussie has pushed above the former range high at .7573.  .7573 should now be support.  Daily oscillators are bullish and the pair closed above the upper Bollinger band (daily) yesterday.  A close above the band often favors a continuation move higher but the last instance of this (9/4) in AUDUSD led to a reversal lower.  Todayââ,¬â"¢s high is at the 61.8% of .7721-.7413 at .7603.  A rally through there exposes the 78.6% at .7655.    

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi broke above resistance from the 10/5 high at .6657 yesterday.  The next bullish target would be the 9/26 high at .6721.  Short term oscillators are overbought, which may serve to limit the upside.  Daily CCI is extreme at above 100 but only a cross below 100 would be bearish.  A break below the 4 month trendline drawn through .5927, .6342, and .6545 would suggest that a reversal lower is in the works.  That line is at .6577 today.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.