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Commodity Currencies Take It to the Euro
By Jamie Saettele | Published  10/20/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Commodity Currencies Take It to the Euro

EUR/AUD ââ,¬â€œ EURAUD declined to 1.6566 yesterday to make a triple bottom with the 7/26 and 8/11 lows.  The pair broke below the 200 day SMA on 10/13 and the larger bias is now bearish.  A head and shoulders completion (break below the neckline on 10/13) reinforces the bearish bias.  The decline from 1.7138 has been rather linear and a corrective move higher is certainly possible.  Fibo resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.7138-1.6566 at 1.6783.  The next bearish target is the 5/4 low at 1.6364.

EUR/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The pair remains stuck in the 1.4070-1.4340 range that has persisted since late August.  A 7 month trendline was broken today .  The upward sloping channel that has formed off of that line is a long term wedge and once broken, the EURCAD could decline considerably ââ,¬â€œ eventually dipping below the 3/1 low at 1.3193.  The pair has declined from the top of the range near 1.4320 and 240 minute RSI is steadily declining and approaching 30.  The position of the indicator suggests additional weakness in the short term to test the bottom of the near term range near 1.4055. 

EUR/NZD - EURNZD may be forming a base from which to work higher as price is just above the 50% fibo of 1.6318-2.1178 at 1.8752.  Daily oscillators remain divergent with price action and suggest that the downside is limited.  A break above the trendline drawn through 2.0810, 1.9991, and 1.9529 would suggest that a bottom was in place.  That line is at 1.9099 today.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.