EUR/USD â�,�“ Since 10/19, we have focused on the possibility that â�,��"the EURUSD may have completed a 3 wave corrective move higher just below the 61.8% of 1.2765-1.2483 at 1.2642.â�,�  Our speculation was confirmed this morning with the pair falling to 1.2543.  With 240 minute RSI just slipping below 50, there is likely plenty more room for the pair to decline.  Price needs to remain below 1.2596 in order to keep the immediate bearish bias intact.  A break below the shelf of support at the confluence of the 10/13 low / 200 day SMA at 1.2478/83 exposes the 7/19 low at 1.2456.  

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY has turned higher following the turn higher off of the 118.00 figure.  Price has more or less held above the 20 day SMA (closing below on 10/19) since 9/26.  The next resistance is the 10/13 high at 119.87 and a push through there argues for an eventual test of the 12/5/2005 high at 121.38.  We have focused on the 5 month trendline for weeks now and as long as price remains above there â�,�“ the picture remains bullish.  That line is at 117.64 today and increases about 9 pips per day.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable has plummeted from 1.8859 to just above the 1.8700 figure.  The break below the short term trendline drawn through 1.8522 and 1.8663 gives scope to a continuation of weakness.  The next support level is the 10/18 low at 1.8660.  Short term bearish momentum is confirmed by 240 minute RSI crossing below 50.  Price needs to remain below 1.8795 in order to keep the near term bearish structure intact.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has taken off from the confluence of the 20/200 day SMAs near 1.2575.   The 20 day SMA has crossed above the 200 day SMA today.  The last cross of the two moving averages was on 4/25, when the 20 day crossed below the 200 day.  History tells us that the cross of these two moving averages is significant (see chart below).  In the short term, support is at the 10/20 high at 1.2601.  Resistance is not until the zone bound by the 10/18 and 10/13 highs at 1.2740/69.

USD/CAD â�,�“ We mentioned Friday that the decline was taking on an impulsive look, which clouds the picture.  In fact, with 5 waves down from 1.1413 to 1.1202, the rally from 1.1202 may be simply a correction of weakness.  Fibo resistance going forward is at the 61.8% of 1.1413-1.1202 at 1.1332.  A push above 1.1332 would begin to turn the picture bullish again.  Support is at the 10/20 low at 1.1202.  A break below encounters the next support level at the 10/2 low at 1.1144.

AUD/USD â�,�“ The Aussie rally stalled just above the 61.8% of .7721-.7413 at .7603.  Todayâ�,��"�s candle pushed to .7613 and reversed at the upper Bollinger band.  The formation of todayâ�,��"�s candle is taking on the shape of a reverse hammer (long wick above body).  If the candle closes in this fashion, then a bearish bias is warranted.  .7613 must hold as resistance in order for the bearish structure to remain intact.  The next support is the 10/17 high at .7553.

NZD/USD â�,�“ On Friday, we mentioned that â�,��"short term oscillators are overbought, which may serve to limit the upside.  Daily CCI is extreme at above 100 but only a cross below 100 would be bearish. â�,��" Price has declined from the 10/19 high at .6692 and CCI has slipped below 100 â�,�“ which opens up the door for more material weakness towards the 4 month trendline drawn through .5927, .6342, and .6545.  That line is at .6583 today and increases about 6 pips per day.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.