EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD was offered to 1.2524 this morning before buyers stepped up.  It does appears that there are 5 waves down from 1.2642 ââ,¬â€œ thus probability favors a 3 wave correction higher towards Fibonacci resistance that begins at 1.2568 (38.2% of 1.2642-1.2524).  The 61.8% is at 1.2596.  Still, the larger picture remains bearish as price is below the 20 day SMA and a downward sloping channel has formed on the daily.  The upper resistance line at 1.2730 is critical resistance and needs to hold to keep an intermediate term bearish bias.  A break below the 7/19 low at 1.2456 exposes the 50% fibo of 1.1640-1.2978 at 1.2310.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY continues to climb as price has broken above the 10 day SMA.  The next resistance is the 10/13 high at 119.87 and a push through there argues for an eventual test of the 12/5/2005 high at 121.38.  We have focused on the 5 month supporting trendline for weeks now and as long as price remains above there ââ,¬â€œ the picture remains bullish.  That line is at 117.73 today and increases about 9 pips per day.  Any setback encounters support at the 10/20 high at 118.79.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable has slipped to just above former support at 1.8660.  As with EURUSD, the decline from 1.8859 is in 5 waves.  A corrective move higher meets Fibonacci resistance at the 38.2% of 1.8859-1.8672 at 1.8744.  The 61.8% is at 1.8787.  If support at 1.8660 gives way, then probability increases that a deeper decline is underway.  Focus would then shift to 1.8515.  

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF has challenged the 1.2700 figure this morning.  The CHF is in the same position as the EUR and the GBP, but appears on the chart as the inverse.  5 waves up from 1.2546 favor a correction to at least fibo support that begins at 1.2643 (38.2% of 1.2546-1.2703).  The 61.8% comes in at 1.2606.  Bearish divergence with hourly RSI favors a short term topping scenario.  A push through 1.2700 shifts focus to the 10/18 high at 1.2740.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD is in at an important juncture technically.  The 20 and 200 day SMAs are just 30 pips apart (20 still below 200).  Since the decline from 1.6000 began nearly 4 years ago, the 20 day has crossed above the 200 day twice.  Both occasions featured modest rallies but NOT major changes in trend.  Will this instance be any different?  It could be.  Divergence on daily, weekly and monthly charts at the major lows point to a more material advance in the coming months.  A push above 1.1332 would begin to turn the picture bullish again in the short term.  Support is at the 10/20 low at 1.1202.  A break below encounters the next support level at the 10/2 low at 1.1144.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD daily candle yesterday was a bearish outside reversal (the candle took out the previous dayââ,¬â"¢s high, low, and closed below the previous low) at the 61.8% of .7721-.7413.  This formation combined with daily CCI declining from above 100 favors the downside.  .7613 must hold as resistance in order for the bearish structure to remain intact.  The next support is the 10/17 high at .7553 -  a daily close below there bolsters the bearish case.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Daily CCI has declined from above 100 and alerted us to a reversal opportunity.  Our focus remains on the 4 month supporting trendline, currently at .6593.  A daily close below opens up the door for additional losses.  Using a right strength of 2, we can place a swing high at .6692 (10/19 high).  This is a lower swing high than the 9/26 high at .6721.  By definition, lower swings highs constitute a downtrend.  Of course, a break below the aforementioned trendline is required in order to instill confidence in a bearish scenario.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.