Australian Consumer Price Index (3Q) (01:30 GMT; 21:30 EST)
                          (QoQ)                      (YoY)
Consensus:         0.7%                       3.7%
Previous:             1.6%                       4.0%

Outlook:  Australiaâ�,��"�s broadest measure of inflation is expected to slow in the third quarter as energy and fruit prices retrace.  Economists expect headline inflation grew 0.7 percent over the three months ending in September, while the annual figure steps lower to 3.7 percent.  For the period, the most readily recognizable detractor from price pressures was a sizable 10 percent drop in the price of gasoline.  Another weighty draw on overall prices may have come from the normalization in fruit prices.  Prices surged 52 percent in the previous quarter as tropical storms destroyed supplies.  Despite these notable changes though, the RBA may still find the scope to lift the benchmark lending rate for a third time this year.  The policy group targets headline inflation between 2 and 3 percent growth in order to ensure stable economic growth.  Furthermore central bank governor Glenn Stevens recently suggested a boost in the yearly, core inflation rate could be met with an additional quarter point hike.  Inflation excluding the volatile food and energy components is expected to accelerate to 2.1 percent from 2.0 percent as firms looked to gradually ease their prices to recoup some of the earlier losses from high raw material and energy prices.  If both measures of inflation meet their respective predicted value, a rate hike may still be on the table; while a surprise to the upside could drive speculation to near certain levels.

Previous:  The governmentâ�,��"�s measure of the second quarter consumer price index breeched the RBAâ�,��"�s target range for the first time in five years.  Annual price growth accelerated to 4.0 percent over the three months as gasoline Aussie consumers absorbed record gasoline prices and a sharp jump in the cost of food.  Following a record breaking pace in crude and other energy commodity prices, petrol prices in Australia grew 11.2 percent to an all-time high A$1.38 at its highest point.  This was supported by a 52 percent jump in fruit prices, which in turn pushed the overall food component 4.1 percent higher.  Aside from these two generous contributions however, core inflation was still marching higher.  Price growth over the year through June reached 2.0 percent, matching the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2003.  In response to the large jump in headline CPI, and the steady growth in underlying, core inflation, former RBA Governor Ian Macfarlene decided to lift the nationâ�,��"�s benchmark lending rate for the second time in to 6.00 percent.

German IFO Survey (OCT) (8:00 GMT, 04:00 EST) 
                      (Business Confidence)     (Expectations)
Consensus:          104.5                                  98.0
Previous:              104.9                                  98.9

Outlook:  German business confidence likely edged lower for the fourth consecutive month, as higher borrowing costs and an impending tax increase weigh on optimism. The most recent ZEW survey reading likewise shows that risks may remain to the downside for tomorrowâ�,��"�s IFO result, with the alternate barometer of business health dropping to 13-year lows through October. As such, markets have largely discounted the currently negative outlook on domestic growth and will likely pay closer attention to the Current Assessment reading. Perhaps surprisingly, median analyst estimates predict that sentiment on current business conditions improved on the month. If this indeed materializes, we may expect a slightly more bullish market sentiment on the state of Europeâ�,��"�s largest single economy.

Previous: Business confidence declined in September, as a planned Value Added Tax (VAT) increase and steadily rising interest rates threatened future profits. Of important note, however, the drop in sentiment was not as pronounced as that of the similar ZEW survey, prompting an extension rally in German equities markets. The divergence between these two survey readings highlights the lack of clear consensus expectations of future growth. Though markets clearly expect German expansion to slow in the coming quarters, an improvement in key survey data may point to a less-pronounced slowdown than traders have currently priced in.

US FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:15 GMT, 14:15 EST)
Consensus:         5.25%
Previous:              5.25%

New Zealand Interest Rate Decision (20:00 GMT, 16:00 EST)
Consensus:         7.25%
Previous:              7.25%

Outlook: Last month, the market was debating between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaving interest rates unchanged or cutting them by 25bp.  This month however, the debate has turned to leaving rates unchanged or raising them by 25bp.  It appears that a lot can change over a very little period of time with the primary driver of this shift being inflation.  Even though the Bloomberg forecast is for rates to be left unchanged at 7.25 percent, analysts are divided 50/50 between that or another rate hike. Tonightâ�,��"�s consumer price release will be the deciding factor.  Should CPI print strongly, the RBNZ will most likely raise rates to 7.50 percent.  If it comes out weak, they could leave them unchanged for another month.  Inflation is really a major concern for the RBNZ especially after the ANZ Commodity Price index printed positive for the third month in a row.  At last monthâ�,��"�s meeting, RNBZ Governor Bollard said explicitly that they are â�,��"less confident that no further policy tightening will be required.â�,� If prices continue to press further beyond their 3 percent target (it is now at 4 percent), they may be forced to put inflation ahead of growth.  However economic data has been far from stellar. Retail sales were flat in the month of August, with sales excluding autos dropping for the first time in three months by the largest amount since August 2005.  GDP also printed lower for the second quarter while the PMI manufacturing index retreated back towards the 50 boom-bust level. 

Previous: On September 14th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 7.25 percent, but the accompanying rhetoric helped to stave off predictions that a rate cut is in the making.  Despite price pressures, consumer spending has remained pretty strong.  New Zealanders continue to open their pocket books because wage and employment growth have kept pace with costs in the global and domestic economy.   Inflation in the sphere of the consumer basket through the second quarter also registered in at 4 percent, the highest level in five years.  The level of prices paid by consumers is not surprising considering the costs at the producer level.  With the rate far above the central bankâ�,��"�s target, a rate cut was not possible.  In fact, Governor Bollard confirmed this by saying at the conclusion of the last meeting that he expected inflation to remain above 3 percent until the third quarter of 2007.  Given these projections he said there is â�,��"no prospect of an OCR cut for some considerable time.â�,�

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.