German GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) (06:10 GMT; 02:10 EST)
Consensus:         8.9
Previous:              8.8

Outlook:  November consumer confidence in Germany, as measured by the GFK survey, may reach 8.9, in line with recent readings from IFO. The headline reading of the German IFO survey unexpectedly improved to a reading of 105.3, while the current assessment gained to 111.8. The rises were attributed to the lower cost of oil in the month of September and very strong order flow in recent months. Meanwhile, the expectations component also surprisingly improved to 99.2, which was the first rise in 5 months. The more optimistic sentiment amongst businesses will likely add to the European Central Bankââ,¬â"¢s arguments for a rate hike before year end, as companies are no longer as pessimistic about the economic outlook, which includes a VAT hike next year to 19 percent from 16 percent.

Previous:  GfKââ,¬â"¢s forward-looking German consumer climate indicator for October edged up to 8.8, the highest since November 2001, from a revised 8.6 in the month prior. Confidence in Germany and throughout the Euro-zone has held steady in light of weaker oil prices and improving economic growth outlooks. This optimism should help to boost domestic spending in coming months, especially as consumers see the opportunity to save money ahead of the impending VAT hike in 2007. However, tightening interest rates could have an inverse effect, as borrowing costs continue to mount.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator (SEP) (08:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:            n/a
Previous:              1.708

Outlook:  With no official consensus for UBSââ,¬â"¢ Consumption indicator offered in the market, expectations for consumer spending over the month of September could create a sizable amount of event risk.  The few related economic indicators that may be used to speculate over the forecasted spending gauge, are mixed.  Adding to the prospects of another shift towards thriftiness for Swiss consumers were a drop in the KOF index, sliding imports and another interest rate hike.  The KOF leading economic indicators composite, used to forecast growth in the coming year, fell to its lowest level since April, suggesting domestic consumption could be a contributor to the decline.  Perhaps a more direct indication of slower spending though was the 3.2 percent drop in imports when adjusted for inflation.  On the other hand, improvements in employment and a rebound in retail sales the prior month could buffer optimism enough to open purses.  Unemployment in September dropped to a fresh three-and-a-half year low 3.2 percent, while retail sales in the month prior grew a greater than expected 4.5 percent.

Previous:  For its August read, UBSââ,¬â"¢ Consumption indicator fell to 1.708 for its second consecutive decline.  The first drop in a year seems to come due to the lagging effects of the steady march in interest rate policy and unique weakness seen in retail sales and car registrations.  As this survey is conducted amongst a pool of retail business leaders, the recent stutter in sales from the read in the previous months was quick to be reflected.  The other big issue for domestic consumption trends is the state of interest rates.  At its last quarterly meeting the SNB decided to tack on another 25 basis points to the overnight lending rate, with a hawkish outlook that could keep the rate on the rise through the first half of 2007.  With lending rates without a cap for the foreseeable future, Swiss consumers become increasingly pessimistic over purchasing big-ticket items.

US Durable Goods Orders (SEP) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                         (Orders)               (ex Transport)
Consensus:          2.0%                          1.0%
Previous:              -0.5%                        -2.0%

Outlook:  Durable good orders in the US are anticipated to rebound in September at a rate of 2.0 percent. The civilian aircraft component should provide a decent boost following the pullback over the last two months, as Boeing revealed a hefty 175 unit surge in plane orders. Orders excluding transportation should also improve, albeit a slower pace, to 1.0 percent. Lending support to the orders report is the ISM manufacturing survey for the month of September, which held above the 50 boom/bus level at 52.9, however, the figure marked a decline to the lowest level since May 2005. Meanwhile, advanced retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.4 percent, which does not bode well for consumer spending, a crucial component of US economic expansion.

Previous:  Orders for durable goods in the US unexpectedly slipped 0.5 percent in the month of August after falling 2.7 percent the month prior, which was the first back-to-back decline since April-May 2004. Orders excluding transportation equipment were far worse in August, diving 2.0 percent. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.3 percent after rising 0.9 percent in July. Meanwhile, orders for electrical equipment and appliances slumped 9.2 percent, the biggest decrease since 2002. The drop in orders sparked concerns that consumer spending may have started to falter as the housing market sags, and subsequently, may be making companies more reluctant to buy new equipment or boost inventories.

US New Home Sales (SEP) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
                           (Sales)                 (Change)
Consensus:          1.040M                  -1.0%
Previous:              1.050M                  4.1%

Outlook:  Sales of new homes are expected to have reinitiated their slide in September as an existing indicator for the same month reported its own contraction.  An expected 1.0 percent drop in the number of completed sales would continue the trend of steadily falling deals from Julyââ,¬â"¢s 1.367 million unit high.  Until just recently, economists were predicting no change in this monthly report.  Housing starts for the same month grew accelerated for the first time since May.  Despite the bullish implications this number may hold though, development in the market is usually a byproduct of improved sales, not the other way around.  Another report to consider, consumer confidence also rebounded for the month.  However, from the sentiment report, the component quizzing consumers whether they were in the market for a home shrunk 1.0 point to 2.8, while those for new homes slipped 0.3 points to 0.9. More pertinent to the indicator in question though, and more consistent in its bias, existing home sales for the same period fell 1.9 percent to 6.18 million units, the fewest since January of 2004.  Should new home sales join the existing turn lower, then the optimism in a bottom in the housing market decent will likely be put off and economic growth predictions could in turn be lowered.

Previous:  New Home sales unexpectedly grew in August for the first time in five months, arousing speculation that the orderly decline in housing could be finding a bottom.  Sales for the month grew 4.1 percent over the month to an annual rate of 1.05 million as incentives and easing mortgage rates attracted potential buyers.  Through the month of August, the average fixed-rate mortgage fell a few basis points from Julyââ,¬â"¢s 6.8 rate, bolstering interest rate sentiment already rising after the Fed announced its intention to stay pat.  Incentives had also played their part in moving houses into escrow.  Those developers who were offering incentives like upgrades or vacations grew to beyond 50 percent from 37 percent the month before.  Another boost to optimism from the numbers was the drop in inventories from record levels.  With respect to all the positive sentiment from this report however, there were a few caveats to its potential for the future.  First of all, new home sales only accounts for 15 percent of the entire market and are often a leading indicator that can be overtly sensitive to temporary deals.  Furthermore, the pricing component in this report reported its first drop since 2003, suggesting a decline could have a long way to go before fair market value is such that it will attract consumers back to the dealing table.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.