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Market Continues to Lack a Strong Directional Bias
By Toni Hansen | Published  06/13/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Continues to Lack a Strong Directional Bias

Good day! The market has continued to whip from highs to lows and back again as the range on the 60 minute charts in the SP500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average has been holding. Everyone pretty much has a different excuse as to why the market is like this, but it's really just a correction to the rally from April and May. There is a tug of war between weekly resistance and monthly support and it's working its way out primarily through a range, although the NASDAQ has also had more of a price correction. Now we are supposedly waiting on economic news coming out this week for some sort of action, but unless it really comes out seriously above or below expectations, that alone isn't going to cut it.

The range in the Dow is getting pretty extended. You don't tend to get much past a month with this narrow of a range before it needs to break out. That is one thing that, combined with some economic news, could get the market jump started again.

We did see a strong move back up to the very highs of the range on Monday after a rather unexciting start to the day. Following the path of the prior couple of weeks, the market continued its about-face that it began Friday afternoon by breaking higher around 10:30 am ET. The pace was once again very extreme, but it took back all of Friday's losses. In the NASDAQ it picked up steam coming out of the 15 minute Cup with Handle that formed along the 20 sma support. Although the market stalled at prior SP500 highs, it wasn't until the NASDAQ closed Friday's gap that the pace turned over once more.

The market picked up downside steam coming out of 12:00 ET when an attempt at a Bull Flag on the 5 minute charts failed to materialize at the strong price resistance on the 15 minute charts. This hit price support from the 11:00 continuation zone and the market fell into a very narrow intraday range. With volume dropping, the range had a strong bearish bias as it formed an Avalanche in the form of a Reverse Cup with Handle on the 5 and 15 minute charts. This broke lower going into the 14:00 ET reversal period and put in an equal move by 14:30 ET. The 5 minute 20 sma continued to serve as resistance until the market finally hit stronger support just after 15:00 at the 5 and 15 minute 200 sma in the Dow and SP500, as well as the early morning breakout zone in the NASDAQ.

As I mentioned at the start of this column, the market doesn't really know just quite what to do with itself. The longer it goes on like this, the more risky trading intraday moves become until a breakout does finally occur. I am finding fewer swingtrade setups during my evening scanning, both as longs and as shorts, but the majority are still on the long side. Nevertheless, they aren't quite up to the caliber as those from a few weeks back. USG and SPLS are two I am keeping an eye on.

AAP from the $51.88 zone on the 4/25 hit new highs of $63.50. Trailing stop initiated for position trades. ASKJ has highs of $32.78 from the 5/18 breakout. Tight trailing stop initiated. Some hit. CI triggered on 5/26 with the break of $97.55 and has highs of $103.80. Trailing stops now initiated. RT, GR, EL and OVTI are still holding their ranges. WAG from 6/13 has support at its 20 day sma.

Economic Reports and Events
June 14: 8:30 am - Core PPI for May, PPI for May, Retail Sales for May , Retail Sales ex-auto for May
June 15: 8:30 am - Inventories, CPI, CPI core, Empire stat; 9:15 - Industrial production, Capacity utilization; 2:00 pm - Beige Book
June 16: 8:30 am - Jobless claims, Housing starts; 12:00 noon - Philly Fed
June 17: 8:30 am - Current account; 9:45 am - Consumer sentiment

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
June 14: BBY (?), BMC (?), PIR (?)
June 15: BSC (?), LAZ (?)
June 16: ADBE (A), CCL (?), GS (B), KBH (A), WGO (B)
June 17: CC (B)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.