EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD pierced key Fibonacci resistance at 1.2697 (61.8% of 1.2829-1.2483) this morning. There is a well constructed 5 wave rally from 1.2524 to 1.2712 with only one wave down to follow.  Probability thus favors a deeper correction lower with initial Fibo support at the 38.2% of 1.2524-1.2712 at 1.2640.  240 minute RSI is declining from overbought territory, which supports the deeper corrective scenario.  A push above 1.2712 negates the immediate topping wave count and exposes the 10/3 high at 1.2765. 
 
USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The JPY has gained slowly to below 118.50 against the dollar but scope remains for a test and break of 118.25 and then a test of 118.02.  The break below a short term (1 month) resisting trendline supports the short term bearish case.  It would take a two day close below the 5 month supporting trendline at 117.94 to turn the larger picture bearish.  Price did close below the 20 day SMA yesterday and the 10 day SMA is right at the 20 day SMA.  A moving average crossover would give more ammunition to bears.  A push above the 10/24 low at 119.06 would begin to shift power to bulls again.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable is a monster as the pair has pushed through 1.8900.  It looks like a 5 wave rally will be complete on a push above 1.8925.  Resistance is at the 78.6% of 1.9072-1.8515 at 1.8952.  Price is approaching the upper Bollinger band on the daily as well.  Recent rallies have reversed just before the upper BB.  A break below 1.8859 would begin to change the short term trend back to a bearish one.  The sequence of lower highs since 1.9144 suggests that the pair may be forming a large top.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF has declined to the 50% of 1.2288-1.2769 at 1.2529 (low at 1.2518) but the recent rally attempt off of 1.2518 has been thwarted twice in the last 8 hours at 1.2563 and 1.2570.  As such, scope remains for a test of the 61.8% fibo at 1.2472.  240 minute RSI is increasing from below 30 and suggests that a bottom is forming.  A rally above 1.2641 would begin to turn the short term price construction bullish again.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD remains stuck in the 1.1200-1.1320 range.  The impulsive look of the 1.1413-1.1202 decline keeps short term wave structure bearish as long as 1.1413 holds.  Initial resistance is at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s spike high at 1.1305.  A rally through 1.1305 gives scope to a test of the 10/24 high at 1.1322.  A drop below the 1.1200 figure may see offers hit until the 78.6% of 1.1085-1.1413 at 1.1155 (10/2 low at 1.1144 reinforces support there).

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD is relentless in its ascent as the pair approaches former congestion resistance above the .7700 figure.  Focus has shifted to a potential resisting trendline drawn through .7791 and .7721 at .7690 today.  The line decreases about 3 pips per day.  Daily CCI is extreme at above 100 but it takes a cross below 100 to signal a reversal opportunity.  From a pure price perspective, a drop below the 10/23 high at.7613 would begin to destroy the bullish construction.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ A support zone from .6486-.6545 has brought relief to Kiwi bulls following the decline from .6692 to .6532.  The break below the 4 month trendline keeps the bias bearish intact but the support zone could prove difficult for bears.  A break below .6486 opens up the door for losses towards the 9/11 low at .6342.  The 61.8% of .6692-.6532 at .6630 is initial resistance.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.