EUR/AUD â,“ EURAUD is working higher from the 10/25 low at 1.6485. The 10/25 daily candle is a spinning top (reversal candle) and is accompanied by bullish divergence with oscillators (daily). MACD slope has flipped to positive. The last flip to positive slope was on 9/28. Short term wave structure shows a 5 wave rally from 1.6485 to 1.6639 followed by a 3 wave sequence to 1.6536 â,“ the 61.8% of 1.6485-1.6639 is at 1.6544. This is setting up for a wave 3 rally that should exceed 1.6639 and eventually test 1.6785 (the 161.8% extension of 1.6485-1.6639 from 1.6536). Price below 1.6485 negates the bullish structure and shifts focus to the 5/4 low at 1.6364.
EUR/CAD â,“ Surprise â,“ range bound conditions continue between 1.4343 and 1.4055. The formation of the consolidation is of the triangle variety and the most recent rejection of strength at the upper end of the triangle favors a pullback into triangle support near 1.4150. 1.4343 and 1.4055 are the points to reference for breakouts. The longer term formation favors a downside breakout as price has traded within a rising wedge since March of this year. A break above 1.4343 exposes the 8/21 high at 1.4477.
EUR/NZD â,“ We mentioned last week that â,"EURNZD may be forming a base from which to work higher as price is just above the 50% fibo of 1.6318-2.1178 at 1.8752.â, The pair has soared from 1.8804 to 1.9391 since 10/23 but a break above 1.9529 is still required in order to suggest that a bottom is in place at 1.8804. Bulls must contend with a potential 3 and a half month resisting trendline, which intersects with the 1.9529 high and the 200 day SMA at 1.9555 early next week. A push through the wall of resistance may see a challenge of the 9/8 high at 1.9995. A break below 1.8804 negates any bullish implications.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.