"The last shall be first," says the Bible. "Shan't the first, then, be last?"

The GDP growth rate fell 40% between the second and third quarters. According to Dr. Richebächer, consumer debt has risen 77% since the end of 2000.

Apparently, the gravity of it is now dragging Americans back down to earth.

And bond market investors seem to see it the same way. T-bond yields have fallen to 4.78% for the 30-year bond.

Are we right? Is the economy really weakening? Does gravity still work? Is the Pope still Catholic? Are there still Okies in Muskogee?

But stock market investors think we're wrong. They've bidden up the Dow to over 12,000. Yesterday, even after the news was out about the slowing economy, stocks gave up only a couple of points.

And in today's headlines, all we find is noise.

"U.S. Consumer Spending, Income Rise...Inflation Slows," says Bloomberg. All is well, in other words.

But wait...

"Consumers hold onto their dollars," adds CNN, noting that household spending is "weaker than predicted."

"Wal-Mart, weakest monthly sales in years," reports MarketWatch.

The data is contradictory, misleading and confusing. What can we do but stick with our old verities?

The way to become wealthy, we recall, is to make sure your outflow does not exceed your income. Because if you spend too much...and owe too much...pretty soon, your upkeep becomes your downfall.

Yes, we know...the stock market is booming.

But, wait...what's this? Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin has some curious thoughts about the equity boom:

"I think there's been a curious phenomenon in the equity markets, at least in the last few months: When there is news that the U.S. economy is slowing, the market often gets stronger because investors figure the Fed will stop raising rates, or maybe lower rates - or maybe they think bond yields will decline. For some reason, they don't seem to say to themselves that earnings may be lower. I think it's very strange."

Strange indeed.

So, yes, of course, America has the biggest, most dynamic economy in the world - we grant that. But we also know that history grinds the 'biggest' down to the smallest...and it wears away the shine on the 'most dynamic' until it is as dull as everything else. We don't claim to know how it all works, but we're pretty sure that spending more than you earn is not a good formula for financial success. And we're pretty sure that the more something looks as though it might lead to instant wealth, the more dangerous it is.

"China's Dollar Reserves Approach $1 Trillion," says another headline. Where did Chinese get all those dollars? It's very simple, dear reader. China - along with other exporters - sells things to Americans. If the world economy were well balanced, it would turn around and also buy things from Americans so that it would come out about even. But China doesn't want nor need what America makes, so it saves the dollars. China runs a trade surplus; America runs a trade deficit that is reaching up towards 7% of GDP.

And America has been running up its bill so long, it hardly worries about it. Trade deficits have become like the Nicene Creed - eternal and unchangeable. We think the Chinese will sell us things from now to eternity and take dollars at about the current rate of exchange for just about the same length of time.

Likewise, they have watched the Dow get whacked in 2000-2001...and bounce right back. So did the economy. And the dollar too!

'That is just the way things are,' they say to themselves.

But it is not really the way things are. Things - especially things in economics and finance - are cyclical. Sometimes, people are willing to buy a stock at 17 times earnings. Other times they want more for their money...even down to five times earnings.

And things work - as near as we can figure - according to rules that we can't do anything about...but that we can't ever completely ignore either.

When someone spends more than he earns (unless it is on capital
investment) then somehow...sometime...he gets poorer. You can see this happening in the international accounts. Foreigners are taking their surpluses and buying more and more U.S. assets. They own 43% of marketable U.S. treasuries, 32% of U.S. corporate bonds, and 16% of U.S. stocks.

Twenty years ago, America crossed the threshold from being a net creditor to the rest of the world, to being a net debtor. Now, it's - by far - the biggest net debtor in world history.

The Okies in Muskogee still fly Ol' Glory down at the courthouse. Our guess is that things still work as they always did.

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing.  For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.