AUD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDCAD has rallied to the 38.2% of .9855-.8119 at .8782.  Daily structure appears rather clear at the moment.  That is, the rally from .8119 to .8684 is the first of 3 corrective legs with the decline from .8684 to .8288 the second leg.  The first and third legs are often equal by a multiple of 1 or a Fibonacci multiple.  .8119 to .8684 is 565 pips and the current rally from .8288 has traveled 501 pips.  Thus, a potential terminus for the corrective wave higher is .8853 (.8288 + .0565).  This would intersect with a resisting channel line . A long term (almost 3 year) resisting trendline is at .8998 today and decreases about 10 pips per day.

AUD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ After completing a 5 wave rally on 10/25 at 90.83, AUDJPY has ranged between 90.06 and 90.83.  The pair has held above the 10 day SMA on a closing basis but has yet to reach prior 4th wave support at 89.09.  A decline to there is reasonable before another rally attempt takes place.  Still, the 12/6/2005 high at 91.32 may be too tempting for bulls.  The proximity of 91.32 limits upside risk at this point but it takes a dip below 89.94 in order to suggest that price heading lower.

AUD/NZD ââ,¬â€œ After exploding through the upper Bollinger band on 10/25, AUDNZD has corrected lower to test the 1.1500 figure.  Daily CCI declining from above 100 gives scope to more pronounced weakness.  The pair does remain below the 200 day SMA as well, which is at 1.1713.  The former resistance from 1.1490 to 1.1450 is now support and a break below would favor a test of the 1.1200 figure.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.