Swiss Consumer Price Index (OCT) (06:45 GMT; 01:45 EDT)
                            (MoM)             (YoY)
Consensus:           0.8%                0.7%
Previous:             -0.2%                0.8%

Outlook:  Inflation in the consumer basket is expected to have rebounded last month, even as the annual gauge looks to have ticked lower.  For the shorter period, economists expect consumer prices to have grown 0.8 percent, following a 0.2 percent contraction the month before.  A rebound would not be unexpected after the previous monthâ�,��"�s sizable drop, which was largely isolated to the foreign energy bill.  With imported oil prices stabilizing, the steady rise in costs for other categories of goods may be able to boost the overall gauge.  Price pressure may be dolled out domestically as well.  Consumers increased their spending habits in September in response to cheaper gasoline prices, as was shown in the jump in UBSâ�,��"� consumption indicator.  With an imminent drop in Swiss demand off the radar, firms would have found it easier to raise the prices of their goods in order to compensate for losses sustained to expensive input costs in the months before.  Despite the expected rebound in the monthly gauge however, the real interest may rest with the year-over-year figure, as it is usually more prominent in making monetary policy decision.  A second contraction in the annual figure to 0.7 percent, in association with a few months worth of slowing economic data, could justify a wait-and-see stance from the SNB at the December meeting.

Previous:  The Swiss Consumer Price Index decelerated to its slowest level of annual growth in over a year in September.  September inflation in the twelve months through September slowed to 0.8 percent, following the 1.5 percent pace in the August.  Despite the considerable easing in inflation pressures, the monthly 0.2 percent contraction was viewed as temporary.  This is due to the influence energy products had on the overall gauge.  During the month, prices for oil-based products dropped 5.7 percent, gasoline 6.1 percent and energy and fuel 3.6 percent.  The weight of the decline was such that when all petroleum-based products were excluded from the gauge, CPI actually rose 0.1 percent for the month.  Though the SNB aims to keep annual inflation below 2 percent, above which threatens the stability of price growth, policy makers have also to deal with economic growth running at six-year highs.  Expansion running at such a quick pace puts threatens inflation and leaves the policy board with a more difficult decision come December.

German Unemployment Change (OCT) (08:55 GMT; 03:55 EDT)
                          (Change)              (Rate)
Consensus:          -23,000                10.5%
Previous:             -17,000                10.6%

Outlook:  German employers are expected to have added 23,000 people over the month of October as optimism rebounds ahead of the institution of a value added tax hike approaches.  Prime Minster Angela Merkelâ�,��"�s initiative to raise taxes on goods and services from 16 to 19 percent will take effect at the beginning of January.  Business leaders and economists have shown strong pessimism regarding the taxes especially given the fragile state of domestic demand and a slowing global economy which will anchor export demand.  Both the IFO business climate and ZEW reports plummeted in the few months after the announcement.  Another caveat is the recent health in manufacturing and services sectors.  Accounting for the bulk of the economy and jobs, the service sector reported a fourth consecutive decline in its employment component in September.  However, there may have been some impetus for German employers to take on more workers in October.  With profit margins already boosted by the sharp drop in energy and other commodity prices over the past few months, a boost in employment may have seemed a worthwhile investment.  Supporting this, IFO business confidence figures for October actually rose for the first time in four months.  If joblessness grows in Europeâ�,��"�s largest economy, monetary policy officials may need to stem the tide by holding off on further rate hikes in order to maintain consumer strength and regional economic growth.

Previous:  Net change in German unemployment contracted by 17,000 people in September following the first increase in five months in the previous period.  With this monthly drop, overall unemployment for the entire nation stands at 4.43 million people, the fewest since August of 2004.  Companies were able to take on more workers through the month as growth in the region hit its fastest pace in five years in the previous quarter.  However, the looming effects of a tax hike from the government to offset the budget deficit have proven difficult to overlook.  Business confidence has fallen across a number of reads as managers prepare for the drop in the domestic demand.  On the other hand, consumers may not be looking that far ahead or are otherwise taking advantage of the few months left until the policy is enacted.  Consumer confidence in September surged to a five-year high on the combined strength of low unemployment, falling gasoline prices and the strong pace of overall economic growth.

Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing Survey (OCT) (09:00GMT; 04:00EST)
Consensus:           56.8
Previous:              56.6

Outlook:  The October reading of Euro-zone manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.8 from 56.6 the month prior. The improvement would be in line with the most recent unexpected rise in the German IFO survey to 105.3 and the robust production and orders data contained in the breakdown. Meanwhile, current conditions readings from multiple surveys, including IFO, GfK, and ZEW generally remain at a very high level which is consistent with the robust growth seen throughout the second half of 2006. Nevertheless, there are multiple medium-term risk factors, such as a cooling world economy, rising interest rates, a strong national currency, and the possible negative impact of Germany's VAT hike next year. Regardless, a further improvement in PMI for October, coupled with resilient M3 money supply growth will add to arguments for monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank, especially as price indices in the PMI have been pointing to an acceleration in output price inflation.

Previous:  The September survey of purchasing managers held at 56.6, indicating that the manufacturing sector in the Euro-zone continues to expand. The employment component rose to 52.3 from 51.9 as new orders accelerated to a reading of 58.4 from 57.7, indicating the increasing demand helped tighten the labor market further. These improvements boosted optimism that domestic demand may be able to support economic growth in Europe, as exports are anticipated to fall in line with an expected slowdown in the US in coming months. Meanwhile, both input and output prices gained, despite a fall in the cost of petroleum products, underpinning the European Central Bankâ�,��"�s concerns about second-round effects on inflation.

ECB Rate Decision (12:45GMT; 7:45EST)
Consensus:            3.25%
Previous:               3.25%

Outlook:  The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold off until December to hike rates, following the monetary policy committeeâ�,��"�s decision in October to raise the benchmark to 3.25 percent from 3.00 percent. The October statement stressed that monetary policy remain accommodative and that a â�,��"further withdrawal of monetary accommodation will be neededâ�,� if the ECB's basic assumptions are confirmed. However, there was no mention of the term â�,��"vigilanceâ�,�, but the Bank said they will â�,��"closely monitorâ�,� all developments. Since last monthâ�,��"�s meeting, annualized Q2 GDP has been revised higher to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent, indicating that the Euro-zone economy has continued to accelerate despite multiple rate hikes in 2006. Meanwhile, core inflation has picked up to 1.5 percent from 1.3 percent, causing concern among central bankers and raising fears that second round effects are starting to stir broader based price pressures. Furthering the price concerns, M3 money supply held at 8.2 percent in September, well above the ECBâ�,��"�s 4.5 percent target. The factor that is likely to keep Jean-Claude Trichet and his counterparts from deciding to tighten monetary policy in November is headline inflation, which stagnated in September and brought the annual rate down to 1.7 percent. The decline was largely a result of the drop in petroleum product prices, but given the sustained weaker prices in October, CPI could remain low. However, the ECB is well aware of this and is focused more on the potential pick-up in CPI once oil bounces higher and core price pressures mount.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.