EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD has broken into its monthly pivot range (1.2632-1.2719), which favors a neutral stance.  Wave structure support is at the 10/19 high at 1.2642, which must hold in order to keep short term wave structure bullish.  The longer term triangle suggests that there may be additional room to the downside to complete the 5 wave triangle.  The most likely scenario would then be a break higher (above 1.2976) to complete a larger 5 wave pattern from November 2005.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY has broken above its monthly pivot range (117.38 â�,�“ 118.25), which presents a medium term bullish bias.  Daily oscillators have turned up and are above midpoints.  Formidable resistance is at the confluence of the 61.8% of 119.87-116.54 / 20 day SMA at 118.53/59.  A short term setback is certainly possible.  Hourly RSI is overbought and exhibits bearish divergence at current price.  Initial support is at todayâ�,��"�s low at 117.80.

GBP/USD â�,�“ The throw over scenario that we mentioned Friday is playing out.  â�,��"A throw over occurs when the rally has gone too far too fast and a subsequent decline could see price drop to the lower channel line.â�,�  That channel line is just below 1.8900 today.  Support at the line is reinforced by the 38.2% of 1.8515-1.9134 at 1.8898.  A break above todayâ�,��"�s high at 1.9028 would begin to suggest that the larger uptrend is resuming.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The support from the 5 month trendline held last week and the USDCHF has rallied to Fibonacci resistance (38.2% to 61.8% of 1.2770-1.2403 is from 1.2542-1.2630).  Resistance is current price is bolstered by the 200 day SMA at 1.2563.  A short term decline may be underway as 60 minute oscillators are divergent with price at todayâ�,��"�s high (1.2578).  Initial support is at todayâ�,��"�s low at 1.2525.  

USD/CAD â�,�“ The USDCAD bounce from the lower end of the 2 month bullish channel has taken the pair back above the 200 day SMA (currently at 1.1291).  The next hurdle for bulls is at the 11/2 high at 1.1372.  A clear directional bias is not confirmed until a break of either 1.1456 on the upside or 1.0927 on the downside.  Increasing daily oscillators and the break back above the 200 day SMA warrant a cautious bullish stance against the 10/31 high at 1.1286.  

AUD/USD â�,�“ The AUDUSD has corrected to the 10/31 low at .7671.  The decline is certainly corrective when compared to the recent advance.  However, downside risk remains as daily RSI has declined from above 70.  The 10 day SMA at .7683 is additional support but a break lower targets the 38.2% fibo of .7413-.7766 at .7631.  A break above the 11/1 high at .7766 exposes the 5/11 high at .7791.     

NZD/USD â�,�“ Kiwi has declined in a clear 3 wave zigzag pattern to the 10 day SMA at .6656.  Additional support is at the 61.8% of .6532-.6750 at .6615.  Only a break below .6486 suggests that the larger trend is down.  Downside risk is suggested by daily oscillators â�,�“ CCI has declined from above 100 and MACD slope is now negative.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.