EUR/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The EURJPY has returned to 150 territory at the upper end of the 2 month 147.54-150.73 range. The consolidation since late August has taken on the form of an ascending triangle ââ,¬â€œ which may lead to a break higher. Still, daily CCI is greater than 100, which has historically indicated short term tops. Thus, the risk of a turn lower is high and risk is limited with the proximity of 150.73. The first bearish target would be the 11/2 low at 148.84 but a break above 150.73 exposes the 138.2% of 150.71-147.54 at 151.93.
EUR/CHF ââ,¬â€œ EURCHF is at the top of its recent range as well and may be forming a triple top with the 9/15 and 10/13 highs at 1.5961/65. The point to reference regarding trend in this pair is the 5 month supporting trendline near 1.5871 today (increases about 4 pips per day). It takes a break below there to suggest that the larger trend is down. Additional strength targets the 161.8% fibo of 1.5853-1.5448 at 1.6007. The pair is above the upper Bollinger band on the daily right now, which has indicated reversals in the last few months.
EUR/GBP ââ,¬â€œ The EURGBP continues to test the 2 year 7 month supporting trendline. The pair slipped below the trendline last week and has rallied back to test the other side of the line as resistance. Additional support is at the 6/23/2005 low at .6609. Daily oscillators are divergent with price action, indicating that a bottom may be forming. It takes a break above .6722 in order to instill confidence in the upside.
Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.