EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Wave structure support is at the 10/19 high at 1.2642, which must hold in order to keep short term wave structure bullish.  However, with the pair in a 5th wave rally that will be considered complete on a rally though, 1.2797, upside potential appears limited.     The longer term triangle reinforces resistance and suggests that there may be additional room to the downside to complete the larger 5 wave triangle.  The most likely scenario would then be a break higher (above 1.2976) to complete a larger 5 wave pattern from November 2005.          

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The short term setback that we focused on in the USDJPY has occurred and the decline below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 117.65, if only temporary, gives scope to additional weakness.  Price has slipped into the monthly pivot range (117.38 to 18.25), and a break in either direction would determine the bias.  Price continues to hold below the 20 day SMA, which is currently at 118.43.  Resistance there is reinforced by the 61.8% of 119.65-116.54 at 118.46 (one pip from yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high).  A break below 117.65 opens up the door for a test of 116.54.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ The GBPUSD came into support from the 38.2% of 1.8672-1.9134 at 1.8959 and has since bounced to 1.9050.  Short term wave structure is the same as that of the EURUSD.  That is, it appears that there may be a push left to exceed 1.9134 in order to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1.8515.  Resistance is at 1.9134 and at the 4/20/2005 and 4/21/2005 highs at 1.9215.  A decline below 1.8945 negates the bullish structure and exposes the 38.2% of 1.8515-1.9134 at 1.8898.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Resistance at the 200 day SMA held yesterday and the USDCHF has tested the 1.2500 figure this morning.  Daily oscillators are bearish again as RSI and CCI are below midpoints and MACD slope is negative.  The low today at 1.2498 occurred with the low in hourly RSI at 29.89.  Rarely does the low in price match the low in indicator.  One more push lower against slowing downside momentum would create a divergence which would then lead to a turn.  Thus, the outlook is the same as for the EURUSD and the GBPUSD (but in the inverse).

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD bounce from the lower end of the 2 month bullish channel has taken the pair back above the 200 day SMA (currently at 1.1291).  The next hurdle for bulls is at the 11/2 high at 1.1372.  A clear longer term directional bias is not confirmed until a break of either 1.1456 on the upside or 1.0927 on the downside.  Increasing daily oscillators and the break back above the 200 day SMA warrant a cautious bullish stance against the 10/31 high at 1.1286.  

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The break below the short term supporting trendline yesterday proved false as price rallied back above the trendline this morning.  The proximity of .7766 limits upside risk but a break above there targets the 5/11 high at .7791.  A sip below .7669 would confirm that this recent bounce is part of a lager bearish structure.  Focus would then shift to the 38.2% of .7413-.7766 at .7631.         

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi bounced in a 3 wave corrective pattern following the clear 3 wave zigzag down from .6748 to .6650.  It is likely that the pair is entering the early stages of a small degree C wave decline to complete the larger correction of strength to .6750.  Focus has shifted to the 61.8% of .6532-.6750 at .6615, which also happens to be where wave C (starting at .6714) would equal wave A (.6748 to .6650).  A rally above .6714 negates this interpretation and may see another attempt on .6750.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.