EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s push above 1.2797 may have completed a 5 wave bullish sequence, which would favor a corrective move lower.  However, a push above 1.2820 (yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s high) means that a wave 5 is still in progress and focus would then shift to the 8/31 high at 1.2880.  Triangle resistance is also just above current price and a break higher could continue on a short squeeze.  Daily studies remains bullish with increasing oscillators and price above the 10 day SMA.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ Price did break below the monthly and weekly pivot zone lows at 117.38 yesterday, which indicates strong selling pressure and favors the downside.  Additionally, strength has been held by the 20 day SMA since 10/26 and price is now right at the 10 day SMA.  The weekly pivot zone high is at 117.80 and a push through there would change the short term bias to bullish.  Targets on either side of the pivot zone are 116.54 on the low side and 118.45 on the high side.  Bolstering the bearish view is daily RSI slipping below 50.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable continues to probe the 1.9100 figure and continues to be thwarted.  4 of the last 5 days have seen intraday highs above 1.9100 and closes below the figure.  Selling pressure obviously exists but the ability of Cable to retest 1.9100 signifies that buying pressure isnââ,¬â"¢t going away either.  A break above 1.9134 and then the 8/8 high at 1.9144 could see a spike on a short squeeze to the 4/20/2005 high at 1.9215.  Contrarians may fade the recent strength with the proximity of 1.9144.  In this case, 1.8945 becomes support.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Resistance at the 200 day SMA held yesterday and the USDCHF has broken below the 1.2500 figure.  Daily oscillators are bearish as RSI and CCI are below midpoints and MACD slope is negative.  The low today at 1.2498 occurred with the low in hourly RSI at 29.89.  Rarely does the low in price match the low in indicator.  One more push lower against slowing downside momentum would create a divergence which would then lead to a turn.  A dip below 1.2403 encounters the 6 month trendline drawn off of the May, August, September, and November lows.  A decline through there would warrant a more aggressive bearish stance.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ 1.1255 to 1.1372 remains the consolidation / pivot zone in the USDCAD.  A break in either direction encounters triangle support / resistance.  This is a critical juncture for the USDCAD as the pair has traded near the 200 day SMA for about a month now.  We are more inclined to favor the upside due to the bullish divergence with oscillators on the weekly and monthly charts.  Also, COT positioning indicates bearish sentiment towards the CAD (bullish USDCAD).

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD continues has retraced all of yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s gains as the bears probe the .7700 figure.  A slip below .7669 would shift focus to the 38.2% of .7413-.7766 at .7631.  Price is currently below the 10 day SMA.  The pair has remained above the short term moving average since 10/12.  A daily close below would indicate additional bearish potential.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi bounced in a 3 wave corrective pattern following the clear 3 wave zigzag down from .6748 to .6650.  It is likely that the pair is entering the early stages of a small degree C wave decline to complete the larger correction of strength to .6750.  Focus has shifted to the 61.8% of .6532-.6750 at .6615, which also happens to be where wave C (starting at .6714) would equal wave A (.6748 to .6650).  A rally above .6714 negates this interpretation and may see another attempt on .6750.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.