GBP/JPY ââ,¬â€œ We discussed this pattern in GBPUSD a few days ago and it played out as expected.  The pattern is called a diagonal triangle which consists of 5 overlapping waves in a diagonal fashion.  The pattern often occurs following a large move and ends with a ââ,¬Ëœthrow overââ,¬â"¢ through the top of the triangle resistance line.  Such is the case here of course.  GBPJPY pierced 225 today for the first time since October 7, 1998.  The diagonal triangle pattern is a terminal pattern, meaning that it marks the end of a move and subsequent trend reversal.  The reversal scenario would be bolstered by a daily close below the support line from the triangle pattern, which is at 223.30 today.  Of course, a push through 225.28 negates the bearish outlook.

GBP/CHF ââ,¬â€œ A similar pattern is visible on the GBPCHF chart ââ,¬â€œ a choppy advance that takes the shape of a triangle and is accompanied with divergent daily oscillators.  The ââ,¬Ëœthrow overââ,¬â"¢ described in GBPJPY has not yet happened and may not happen.  The pair does remain supported above the 4 month trendline drawn off of the 7/7, 9/11, and 10/2 lows.  That line is just below current price at about 2.3722 today.  A break below that line could give way to the 10/20 low at 2.3571 in a momentââ,¬â"¢s notice.  The 11/3 high at 2.3864 is critical resistance if the bearish scenario is to play out.

GBP/AUD ââ,¬â€œ The 11 month trendline held beautifully on 11/6 as GBPAUD dipped to 2.4571 before beginning its latest rally, which has stalled at the 38.2% fibo of 2.5415-2.4571 at 2.4893.  Fibo resistance is always a likely point of reversal and hourly RSI is rolling over from above 70, which favors the topping scenario.  Additional strength encounters resistance from the 9/29 low at 2.4966 and the 61.8% fibo of the mentioned bear wave at 2.5091.  Initial resistance is at todayââ,¬â"¢s low at 2.4697.  Price below there favors a re-test of the 11 month trendline.  The 200 day SMA reinforces support at 2.4484.  It takes a break below the long term trendline and the 200 day SMA to suggest that the longer term trend has reversed.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.