EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD has managed to push all the way to 1.2902 this morning.  The larger triangle scenario is still intact depending upon where one draws the triangle.  The most conservative line places the resistance line from the 6 month triangle at about 1.2905/10.  It is clear now that there are 5 waves up from 1.2483.  The combination of 5 waves, triangle resistance, and overbought + divergent oscillators on the hourly and 240 minute charts make it difficult to get bullish at the current juncture.  A decline below the 11/7 high of 1.2820 instills more confidence in the downside.  A rally through 1.2902 exposes previous daily highs at 1.2938 and 1.2976.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY is right at a short term supporting line drawn off of recent daily lows.  Bulls were again rejected at the 20 day SMA yesterday, which remains resistance at 118.13 today.  Slight bearish divergence on the hourly with RSI gives scope to a rally attempt.  Initial resistance would be at 117.65.  It takes a break below 116.54 to suggest that a more pronounced decline is underway.

GBP/USD â�,�“ We focused yesterday on â�,��"the rally from 1.8515â�,�¦has the look of a 5 wave rally with a failed 5th wave (where the 5th wave was unable to rally above the 3rd wave extreme).â�,�  The break above 1.9134 negated the bearish failed 5th scenario and completed a 5 wave rally from 1.8515.  Probability that this latest bout of strength was a 5th wave (and end of a short term bullish sequence) is strengthened by the bearish divergence with short term (60 and 240 minute) oscillators.  A decline below intraday resistance (now potential support) at 1.9108 probes the 1/9 low at 1.8973.

USD/CHF â�,�“ Resistance at the 200 day SMA continues to hold and the USDCHF has broken below the 6 month resisting trendline.  However, a daily close below is required to suggest that this pair will continue lower.  Daily oscillators are bearish as RSI and CCI are below midpoints and MACD slope is negative (however â�,�“ extreme CCI at less than -100 gives scope to a reversal).  Like the other pairs, divergence with RSI on the hourly at the recent extreme may limit a continuation of dollar weakness throughout the remainded of the day.

USD/CAD â�,�“ 1.1255 to 1.1372 remains the consolidation / pivot zone in the USDCAD.  A break in either direction encounters triangle support / resistance.  This is a critical juncture for the USDCAD as the pair has traded near the 200 day SMA for about a month now.  We are more inclined to favor the upside due to the bullish divergence with oscillators on the weekly and monthly charts.  Also, COT positioning indicates bearish sentiment towards the CAD (bullish USDCAD).

AUD/USD â�,�“ The 20 day SMA served as support for the AUDUSD yesterday at .7642.  The short term structure since the high at .7766 has taken on the form of a textbook 3 wave (a-b-c) decline.  The third wave is usually the most violent of the 3 â�,�“ which is the case here.  Support at the 38.2% of .7413-.7766 at .7632 may prove difficult for bears to defeat.  Still, only a rally through .7766 instills confidence in the upside at this point.

NZD/USD â�,�“ We have concentrated on the 61.8% of .6532-.6750 at .6615, which also happens to be where wave C (starting at .6714) would equal wave A (.6748 to .6650).  Price did reach the measured objective yesterday, slipping to .6611 before stabilizing.  Trading since has been uninspiring and there may be more room left to the downside.  The pair has slipped just below the 20 day SMA, whioch is at .6655 today.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.