EUR/USD â�,�“ We have continued to focus on the larger triangle scenario, which is still intact.  This pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle.  Bearish targets going forward are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644.  Often times, alternating legs of triangles will be equal to each other (or close to it) by a Fibonacci multiple.  The C leg of the triangle was from 1.2938 to 1.2483 for a price distance of 455 pips.  61.8% of 455 is 281 â�,�“ a decline from the top of leg E of the triangle, beginning at 1.2902, would travel 281 pips at 1.2621 (just below the 61.8% retracement of 1.2483-1.2938 at 1.2644).  The long bearish reverse hammer on Friday also indicates weakness.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY held at a short term supporting line drawn off of recent daily lows and the pair has rallied to the 50% fibo of 118.27-117.12 at 117.85.  the 61.8% is at 118.02, just above the psychological 118.00 figure.  The 20 day SMA, at 118.09 has held as solid resistance since 10/26, but a break above exposes the 11/9 high at 118.58.  Initial support is at the low from today at 117.12.  It takes a break below 116.54 to suggest that a more pronounced decline is underway.

GBP/USD â�,�“ The 5 wave rally from 1.8515 looks complete at 1.9178 and the decline since is likely the beginning of a larger corrective move lower.  Fibo support begins at the 38.2% of 1.8515-1.9178 at 1.8926.  Price has held above the 10 day SMA (on a daily closing basis) since 10/17 but has broken below the moving average intraday today.  A daily close below would bolster the bearish case.  On the daily, the slightly higher high at 1.9178 (relative to 1.9144) is accompanied by bearish divergence with oscillators, which favors a more protracted decline.  A break under 1.8945 would begin to suggest that a deeper decline is underway.

USD/CHF â�,�“ We warned Friday that â�,��"a daily close below the trendline is required to suggest that this pair will continue lower.â�,�  Fridayâ�,��"�s late rally ensured a close above the trendline and favors a dollar recovery.  The daily candle ended as a hammer, which is a bullish reversal candle.  Daily CCI has rallied above -100, which historically has signaled a reversal higher.  Fibo resistance begins at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2769-1.2346 at 1.2508.

USD/CAD â�,�“ 1.1255 to 1.1372 remains the consolidation / pivot zone in the USDCAD but the USDCAD may finally be finding some direction as the pair has rallied to 1.1350 this morning.  This is a critical juncture for the USDCAD as the pair has traded near the 200 day SMA for about a month now.  We are more inclined to favor the upside due to the bullish divergence with oscillators on the weekly and monthly charts.  Also, COT positioning indicates bearish sentiment towards the CAD (bullish USDCAD).  A break above 1.1372 encounters former daily highs at 1.1413 and 1.1456.

AUD/USD â�,�“ The AUDUSD is just above support from the 38.2% fibo of .7413-.7766 at .7631.  Support is reinforced just below at the 10/23 high at .7613.  Hourly RSI is at 30 and the decline from .7766 is in 3 waves, thus probability increases that the pair could find support at the mentioned levels.  The preceding 5 wave advance from .7413 keeps the longer term bias bullish against .7413.  A potential reversal point (potential bottoming point) is at the 61.8% of .7413-.7766 at .7548.

NZD/USD â�,�“ We have concentrated on the 61.8% of .6532-.6750 at .6615, which also happens to be where wave C (starting at .6714) would equal wave A (.6748 to .6650).  Price did reach the measured objective Thursday, slipping to .6611 before stabilizing.  The bounce to .6666 was rather uninspiring and the pair has fallen again this morning to test .6620.  The pair is below the 20 day SMA and is testing a 4 month support line currently.  A break below .6611 exposes the 10/26 low at .6532.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.