German Gross Domestic Product (3Q) (07:00 GMT; 02:00 EDT)
                          (QoQ)                     (YoY)
Consensus:         0.7%                       2.6%
Previous:             0.9%                       2.4%

Outlook:  Although economic growth is expected to slow on a quarter-over-quarter basis to 0.7 percent, the annual rate of GDP expansion is estimated to hit a six-year high of 2.6 percent. Investment likely remained the growth engine of the German economy, according to a recent Bundesbank report which also noted that the contribution of foreign trade was probably â�,��"rather modestâ�,� as imports increased. Meanwhile, builders probably boosted construction further in the third quarter, but at a slower pace than in the previous three months. However, consumer spending, which still lacks momentum despite a tighter labor market and buoyant consumer sentiment, adds downside risk to the GDP estimate.

Previous:  Economic expansion in Germany picked up at the fastest pace in five years during the second quarter at a rate of 0.9 percent, bringing the annual rate up to 2.4 percent. The rise was better-than-expected after companies increased investment and hiring to meet foreign demand for their goods. The World Cup tournament in June and the prospect of a sales-tax increase in 2007 boosted consumer spending, while construction activity rebounded from the first quarter, when it was hampered by unusually cold weather. The acceleration in growth in Germany helped to strengthen Euro-zone expansion as a whole, leading to three 25 basis point hikes between June and November, with another one expected in December, which would bring the benchmark to a five-year high of 3.50 percent.

UK Consumer Price Index (OCT) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EDT)
                          (MoM)                    (YoY)
Consensus:         0.3%                      2.6%
Previous:             0.1%                      2.4%

Outlook:  Inflation in the consumer basket is expected to have picked up over the month of October as energy prices leveled out and education and utility costs continued their ascension.  Petroleum products will be specifically influential for the month, as they were in the previous report.  In September, the volatile energy group dropped quickly as crude oil prices fell to levels nearly 25 percent off of their record highs.  Though the price drop continued through the opening days of October, the moderation of the decent will ease the downward pressure on the overall index.  In other parts of the mass calculation, the increase in university fees and utility costs like water and electricity should keep the overall index moving higher.  In the months ahead, two factors will play a big role in price growth; the recent rate hike from the BoE and wage negotiations that usually take place in the opening months of the year.  Following the CPI print, the BoEâ�,��"�s Quarterly Inflation report will provide reliable biases from the monetary policy committee and give some context to future releases.

Previous:  The UKâ�,��"�s main inflation gauge slowed slightly to 2.4 percent in September from the 2.5 percent pace in the previous month.  The 0.1 percent drop in the pace was unexpected as economists believed energy prices would have a greater influence over the overall read.  Though the month, energy related products dropped 6.2 percent, with a 6.4 pence drop in gasoline prices leading the way.  Despite the easing in this sector though, few other groups declined for the month.  Helping to counteract the energy action for the month, housing costs jumped 6.9 percent, while home appliances and furniture costs jumped 2.9 and 2.2 percent respectively.  Also noteworthy for the month, the RPI gauge used in wage negotiations accelerated to 3.6 percent for the same period; the quickest pace of growth in nearly eight years.

US Produce Price Index (OCT) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EDT)
                           (MoM)                     (YoY)
Consensus:         -0.5%                      -0.5%
Previous:             -1.3%                       0.9%

Outlook:  Producer prices look to continue their recent downtrend, as analysts predict headline PPI will shrink by 0.5 percent through the month of October. The negative headline figure will likely reflect the swift drop in energy prices, but the core PPI figure looks to move modestly higher within the same period. Markets will likely pay closer attention to these core figures, as prominent central bankers have continued to cite their importance over headline price growth. The market-moving impact may be limited, however, as expectations of little change will do little to shift outlook on the central bankâ�,��"�s overnight lending rate. It will likely take significant surprises in either direction to elicit a jump in price volatility for USD-denominated currency pairs.

Previous:  Producer prices dropped by the most in over three years, as an improvement in energy prices limited overall price inflation. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, however, prices rose by the largest percentage since April 2005 on quickly gaining automobile prices. Indeed, markets had predicted a 0.2 percent rise, but the number unexpectedly rose by 0.6 percent through the observation period. Markets reacted by sending bond yields lower and cut expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate increases through the medium term. Since the release, traders have only continued to scale back initial predictions of a further 25 basis point rate hike by year end. It will be important to monitor upcoming inflation and retail sales data to gauge whether bond yields will continue their recent trend lower.

US Advanced Retail Sales (OCT) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EDT)
                         (Sales)                   (ex Autos)
Consensus:         -0.4%                      -0.2%
Previous:             -0.4%                      -0.5%

Outlook:  Retail sales are expected to contract 0.4 percent for a second month in October, suggesting rising confidence and cheaper energy prices will not translate into more liberal spending habits.  For the month of October, sentiment surveys were mixed.  The University of Michiganâ�,��"�s final read of optimism grew to its highest level since July of 2005 on the combination of cheaper gas prices and continued job growth.  On the other hand, the Conference Boardâ�,��"�s report of the same thing actually contracted slightly to 105.4 over the same period, blamed on the fret over the continued housing slump.  For October, a related indicator may have helped to guide predictions for the retail report.  Total auto sales for the period slipped from 16.6 million on an annual pace to 16.2 million.  With this in mind however, the market will discount the headline figure and pay greater attention to the ex autos report to gauge the health of consumer spending in an environment where so many issues are in flux.

Previous:  Retail sales in the worldâ�,��"�s largest economy unexpectedly dropped 0.4 percent as a large drop in gas receipts offset gains in other areas.  In September, filling station sales plunged 9.3 percent, the single largest monthly decline on record.  Such large slide follows the drop in the broad energy product group and specifically easing in gasoline prices to an 8-month low $2.25 per gallon.  On the other hand, when the drop at the pump was excluded from the price reports, the monthly statistics were very different.  When service station sales were left out, retail sales actually grew 0.6 percent.   Further whittling down on the volatile components, when autos and building materials were also cut, the indicator actually grew 0.8 percent, the biggest increase for this focused group since January.  

New Zealand Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) (21:45 GMT; 16:45 EDT)
                           (MoM)                    (QoQ)
Consensus:         -0.1%                      0.7%
Previous:              0.0%                      -0.5%

Outlook:  Analysts predict that New Zealand retail sales fell for the first time in five months, as quickly rising prices and falling employment levels reduce consumer demand. Recent trends continue to heighten fears of stagflation in the small island economy, with slowing growth and persistently high inflation threatening the economic welfare of the countryâ�,��"�s 4 million residents. As such, it will be important to see whether tomorrowâ�,��"�s economic data can show a reprieve in declining domestic demand. A surprise to the upside would likely lead to a relief rally in the NZDUSD, which as fallen over two percent off of its recent 9-month highs.

Previous:  Retail sales unexpectedly remained unchanged through the month of August, as the upward momentum from three consecutive gains proved insufficient to lead the figure higher. The negative result was enough to reduce speculation of further Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate hikes, which have served to strengthen the domestic currency in the face of below-trend growth. With headline inflation above the central bankâ�,��"�s target range, the RBNZ has had little choice but to raise lending rates to 7.25 percentâ�,�”the highest of any nation with a top S&P Sovereign rating. Risks subsequently remain to the downside for expansionary outlook, with high borrowing costs likely to limit a substantive recovery in the small island economy.

Japanese Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EDT)
Consensus:         -0.6%
Previous:              0.7%

Outlook:  The tertiary index, a gauge of money spent on services including retail and communications, is expected to drop 0.6 percent in the month of September. The decline will likely be a result of weaker demand for Japanese products both domestically and abroad, as exports to the US dwindle on the back of slowing growth and consumer spending remains dismal as wage growth stagnates. These factors were highlighted by a fall in industrial output during September, which hit -0.7 percent from a record high the month prior, led by automobile and general machinery makers.

Previous:  The Japanese tertiary index gained for the first time in three months at rate of 0.7 percent, indicating a rebound in the services sector. The gain was led by demand for utilities as companies used more electricity to drive record production. Auto companies and chipmakers increased output amid expectations that global and domestic demand will expand. Meanwhile, unemployment near an eight-year low led wages to edge slightly higher, which could spur spending by households, which represent more than half of the economy.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.