EUR/USD – The larger triangle scenario seems to be playing out.  This pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle.  Bearish targets going forward are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644.  Often times, alternating legs of triangles will be equal to each other (or close to it) by a Fibonacci multiple.  The C leg of the triangle was from 1.2938 to 1.2483 for a price distance of 455 pips.  61.8% of 455 is 281 – a decline from the top of leg E of the triangle, beginning at 1.2902, would travel 281 pips at 1.2621 (just below the 61.8% retracement of 1.2483-1.2938 at 1.2644).

USD/JPY – The USDJPY continues to trade near the confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAs at 117.74/118.06.  The pair has consolidated between 117.12 and 118.45 since 11/3 and it takes a break of one of these levels to establish a directional bias.  Looking at the daily structure, the bounce from the 11/1 low at 116.54 has been uninspiring and corrective.  This characteristic combined with the impulsive looking decline from 119.65 favors the downside.  118.58 is initial resistance.

GBP/USD – The 5 wave rally from 1.8515 looks completed at 1.9178 and the decline since is likely the beginning of a larger corrective move lower.  The decline from 1.9178 is now in 5 waves (short term) and price is near the 11/6 low at 1.8945 (previous 4th wave extreme).  Bullish divergence with oscillators also favor a bounce from near 1.8945 with resistance near today’s high at 1.9050.  Wave structure suggests that a bounce will be followed by another decline similar to the one from 1.9178 to current price.  Fibo support in this case is at the 61.8% of 1.8515-1.9178 at 1.8769.  Only a rally through 1.9178 negates the immediate bearish implications.

USD/CHF – The rally off of the 6 month trendline keeps the near term picture bullish with fibo resistance just above the 1.2500 figure (38.2% of 1.2769-1.2346 at 1.2507).  The 61.8% is resistance on extended strength at 1.2607.  Short term momentum remains favorable to bulls with hourly RSI above 50.  The last two daily candles (long wicks) indicate strong support near 1.2350.  The 11/10 low at 1.2346 must hold in order to keep upside potential intact.

USD/CAD – The USDCAD has broken away from the 1.1255-1.1372 range and focus has shifted to the 10/17 high at 1.1413 and the 7/24 high at 1.1456.  Resistance may prove difficult for bulls here as price is also hugging the upper Bollinger band (daily).  A short term setback is possible given the mentioned resistance and bearish divergence with RSI on the hourly.  Support comes in at today’s low at 1.1355.  The longer term bias bullish remains intact as long as the support line drawn off of 1.1028, and 1.1177 holds.  That line is at 1.1215 today and increases about 4.5 pips per day.

AUD/USD – AUDUSD support came in at the 10/23 high at .7613.  The preceding 5 wave advance from .7413 keeps the longer term bias bullish against .7413.  The decline from .7766 appears to be completed in 3 waves, which increases the likelihood that the uptrend will resume soon.  A drop below .7614 negates this outlook of course and would shift focus to support at the 10/24 low at .7559.  A rally through the 11/10 high at .7697 instills more confidence in the upside.

NZD/USD – Kiwi broke below a 4 month support line yesterday, which shifts focus to the 10/26 low at .6532.  A break below .6532 would suggest additional bearish potential towards the 38.2% of .5927-.6750 at .6435.   21 day momentum also slipped below 0 for the first time since 10/26.  Initial resistance is today’s high at .6619.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.