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Economic Release Alerts for November 15
By John Kicklighter | Published  11/14/2006 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Economic Release Alerts for November 15

Australian House Price Index (3Q) (00:30 GMT; 19:30 EDT)
                          (QoQ)                     (YoY)
Consensus:         1.0%                       7.7%
Previous:             3.1%                       6.4%

Outlook:  Prices for homes in Australia should continue to gain in the third quarter, albeit at a slower pace of 1.0 percent, as rising borrowing costs may finally make a slight impact on housing demand. However, with home-building approvals 6.1 percent higher at the end of the quarter in September, the number of buyers in the market clearly have not been dissuaded entirely. Furthermore, a solid labor market has helped prop up wages, subsequently lending upside risk to the house price report.

Previous:  Australian house prices gained 3.1 percent in the second quarter, bringing the annual rate up to 6.4 percent. Rising immigration has boosted demand for housing after a slowdown in construction last year cut supply. As a result, rents were driven higher, spurring property investment and also turning some renters into buyers. Additionally, growing demand tempered the effect of rising interest rates and seeped into consumer price growth, leading the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates for the third time in 2006 to 6.25 percent from 6.00 percent in November.

UK Claimant Count (OCT) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EDT)
                        (Claims)                  (Rate)
Consensus:         5.0K                      3.0%
Previous:            10.0K                     3.0%

Outlook:  The number of jobless claims in the UK is expected to pick up once again in the month of October by 5,000, which would bring the total to 967,000. The unemployment rate will be of interest to the markets as well, as the influx of jobless claims has generally been a result of immigration from Eastern Europe to the UK. Should the jobless rate jump, concerns will be quelled that wage growth could seep into CPI. Furthermore, traders may question if the Bank of England jumped the gun when they decided to hike rates to 5.00 percent in November, as the second-round effects of oil costs and greater price pressures in general have yet to come to fruition.

Previous:  The labor market in the UK weakened in the month of September, as the number of people claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped 10,200 to 962,000, the highest level since December 2001. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 3.0 percent as the swelling in the number of jobless Brits is largely a result of migrants from Eastern Europe, which helped propel the UK population above 60 million last year. Additionally, a struggling revival of the fragile manufacturing sector can only spur so much demand for labor, as a strong British Pound makes goods from the UK increasingly expensive and therefore, less attractive. Nevertheless, the labor market was considered tight enough by the Bank of England to spark wage growth concerns, which helped lead to a 25 basis point hike by the central bank in November to 5.00 percent.

Empire Manufacturing (NOV) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EDT)
Consensus:         15.0
Previous:              22.9

Outlook:  After the New York regional manufacturing report failed to light the way for the other regional reports in October, the indicator will be met with some skepticism for its November print. Speculation surrounding the leading factory report is already mixed.  The official consensus for the Empire gauge is for a reduction in growth through the month to a 15 point positive spread.  Third quarter GDP and the University of Michiganââ,¬â"¢s consumer survey for November support the negative sentiment.  The gauge of optimism slowed 1.3 points unexpectedly to 92.3, while growth in the three monthââ,¬â"¢s through September slowed to a three-and-a-half year low 1.8 percent pace.  Despite this though, there may be a number of events that could have strong standing in boosting factory leadersââ,¬â"¢ expectations.  With fuel prices continuing its slide, input prices ease while consumers are left with more discretionary income to facilitate demand.  Additionally, the strong readings in Japanese and German GDP figures should lift expectations for export demand in the months ahead.

Previous:  The Empire factory report was the only regional indicator to improve over the month of October.  General sentiment rose 13.84 to 22.92 on account of favorable price differentials and sales numbers.  Current condition components revealed that while prices paid for raw materials slipped for a fourth consecutive month, the received sub-gauge actually grew for its second month in a row.  From the demand facet of the report, shipments advanced 2.0 points, but new orders dropped to a three month low.  Looking ahead, expectations for the coming six months were heavily tilted towards the negative.  Expectations in passing on lifting prices charged dropped while sales and new orders both contracted.  Potentially weighing GDP to even further lows, planned capital investment was also on the move lower as managers look to protect their profit margins.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.