EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The larger triangle scenario continues to play out.  This pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle.  Bearish targets going forward are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644.  Often times, alternating legs of triangles will be equal to each other (or close to it) by a Fibonacci multiple.  The C leg of the triangle was from 1.2938 to 1.2483 for a price distance of 455 pips.  61.8% of 455 is 281 ââ,¬â€œ a decline from the top of leg E of the triangle, beginning at 1.2902, would travel 281 pips at 1.2621 (just below the 61.8% retracement of 1.2483-1.2938 at 1.2644).  The long wicks on the daily candles indicate strong selling pressure as well.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The tight range between 117.12 and 118.58 continues.  The last 4 days have alternated as up day, down day, up day, down day, and today is so far an up day.  A triangle has formed since the end of October and the upper end of the triangle is now resistance near 118.25.  Triangle resistance is reinforced by recent daily highs that stretch to 118.58.  It takes a rally through there to give scope to additional bullish potential.  The lower end of the triangle at 117.30 is support, which is strengthened by the 11/13 low at 117.12.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable continues to plummet.  The pair found interim support at the 11/6 low at 1.8945 (as we outlined yesterday) but has collapsed through there as well.  Focus now shifts to the 10/20 high at 1.8859 and the 61.8% of 1.8515-1.9178 at 1.8769.  The rhythm on the daily chart is telling.  That is, recent declines in GBPUSD have lasted 4 to 5 days and been sharp (like this one).  Today is the third day of the current decline, so the 61.8% at 1.8769 looks feasible.  Former support at 1.8945 is now resistance.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The rally off of the 6 month trendline keeps the near term picture bullish with fibo resistance just above the 1.2500 figure (38.2% of 1.2769-1.2346 at 1.2507 and strengthened by the 20 day SMA at 1.2514).  The 61.8% is resistance on extended strength at 1.2607.  Hourly RSI is overbought at 77 so a near term setback is possible.  Initial support is at the 11/13 high at 1.2458.  The last 3 daily candles (long wicks) indicate strong support near 1.2350.  The 11/10 low at 1.2346 must hold in order to keep upside potential intact.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD has broken away from the 1.1255-1.1372 range and focus has shifted to the 10/17 high at 1.1413 and the 7/24 high at 1.1456.  Price action from the 11/7 low at 1.1255 is nothing more than an impulsive rally followed by a consolidation.  Probability then favors another rally.  Former resistance near 1.1350 has proved solid support so far with yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s setback bouncing at 1.1342.  Still, the 1.1400 has stemmed the last three dayââ,¬â"¢s advances.  A break through 1.1413 could see 1.1456 in a hurry as a build up of buy stops above the figure could trigger a short squeeze.  1.1255 must remain intact if the bullish bias is to remain.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ It looks like there is one more leg down in AUDUSD to complete an ending diagonal and ultimately complete the correction of the .7413 to .7766 uptrend.  The intersection of the support line from the ending diagonal intersects with the 50% fibo of .7413-.7766 at .7590 later today.  The intersection of these lines makes .7590 an ideal area for the Aussie to bottom.  However, it takes a rally through .7673 in order to instill confidence in the upside.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The short term structure in Kiwi is similar to the Aussie structure.  That is, the decline consists of overlapping waves, which is corrective in nature.  NZDUSD may be entering the final leg down in its diagonal triangle but a break below .6532 would suggest additional bearish potential towards the 38.2% of .5927-.6750 at .6435.   21 day momentum also slipped below 0 for the first time since 10/26.  Initial resistance is todayââ,¬â"¢s high at .6636.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.