Energies
Fresh highs in energies came on fears of disproportionate management of  distillate stocks and an overall fear of distillate supply issues.  Throw in an ineffective OPEC and you got a breakout bull market.  The ever committed contrarian in me is of course selling call premium today and buying bear put spreads.  Call it wishful thinking but I am not of the belief that the energy complex can glide through $60 on crude like it is a non-event and the market definitely needs another gut check long before it can have another run to the moon.  Natural gas is offering some terrific option premium collection in the August 9s and crude calls above $60 are a fair sell. 

Financials
Stocks are approaching my 1230 mark and I would venture to play resistance and develop some put spreads as we approach the mark.  Bonds lack the quick return to their relative highs that would be needed to erase the recent downside momentum.  I will wait until Tuesday or Wednesday and then I am all-in to the downside if the market is below 117 on the 30yr.  The dollar got rocked today and the chart looks like a move to about 8650 or 8700 is likely.  If we get there you best sell the farm to go long because the sentiment will be fighting you but 90 is an easy target for the dollar. 

Grains
A major grain push came as critical $7 resistance was broken on beans and weather concerns pushed the market to fresh highs heading into the weekend.  Look for a broad based grain rally all summer long, but expect the market momentum to fail in the near term.  With that said I like ratio call spreads in beans and a wait and see on corn and wheat.  Oats hit my first target and I would be cautiously bullish at this time.

Meats
Continued cattle weakness indicates a strong breakdown is in the works as the break below 80 was almost too easy.  Wait for a pop and get short for the ride to 76.  Hogs are becoming a buy at this price and bellies are still neutral to a buy.

Metals
Gold strength continued regardless of this week’s currency move.  I remain convinced that the dollar strength ahead will ultimately force gold’s hand and push us to sub-$400 prices.  I take the current move as me being short term wrong but offering a long term opportunity and a great price to get short this market with value puts out in October or December.  Silver lacks the upside momentum to sell call premium but I would if we get a 20 cent or more up day next week.  Copper is still far from bearish and I would avoid this market at these prices.  Palladium remains a buy with stops below 175.

Softs
OJ set up a bull breakout next week, following today’s option expiration.  If we don’t get a bull spike above 9860 by Thursday next week then I am out of this market.  Otherwise, a break above 9860 is a great sign of fresh highs ahead.  Coffee is failing and making all of the weak specs bail.  This is a perfectly acceptable retracement and the market should find support around 100 or higher and move up to new highs before the frost season is said and done.  Sugar remains a strong buy.  Lumber is a sell but a bounce to 350 is not out of the question.  Cotton is still a sell with sub-40 prices ahead.  Cocoa volatility spiked as expected and I suspect further upside is ahead.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.