EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The larger triangle scenario continues to play out.  This pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle.  Targets going forward and points of potential reversal (reverse to the upside) are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 (reinforced by the 20 day SMA at 1.2740) and the 61.8% at 1.2644.  Bolstering the view for a short term decline is the break of the short term trendline.  Short term momentum, as evidenced by hourly RSI, is below 50 and decreasing.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ As we suspected, the pair has broken out of the short term triangle.  However, triangles are terminal patterns, meaning that this latest rally will likely be reversed.  There is strong resistance at current price with the 10/2 high, 11/6 high, and 11/9 high all between 118.39 and 118.58.  This morningââ,¬â"¢s high is at 118.46.  The 61.8% fibo of 119.86-116.54 is at 118.58 and reinforces resistance at the current juncture.  A push higher exposes the 119.00 figure and the 78.6% fibo at 119.15.  A break below yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 117.75 would suggest that the move down is underway.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable remains supported by the 50% fibo of 1.8515-1.9178 at 1.8835.  Additionally, a short term double bottom at the fibo along with bullish divergence with hourly RSI suggests that the pair is forming a bottom.  Additional weakness may stretch to the 61.8% at 1.8769 but the downside seems limited from here.  We have focused recently on the rhythm on the daily chart.  That is, recent declines in GBPUSD have lasted 4 to 5 days and been sharp (like this one).  Today is the 5th day of the current decline, which supports the bottoming scenario.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The short term structure remains constructive (bullish) as long as price remains above the short term trendline from 1.2346 (see chart below).  Price is right at resistance from the 11/15 high at 1.2520 and a push higher gives scope to the 11/6 high at 1.2578.  The rally from 1.2346 has been choppy and the overlapping nature of the waves within the advance suggests that the rally is corrective and that downside risk is high.  Short term RSI (hourly) is divergent at the current juncture, which supports a topping out in the USDCHF.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD bulls have managed to challenge the 7/28 high at 1.1456.  A close above todayââ,¬â"¢s open (1.1422) would make it 7 consecutive up days for the USDCAD ââ,¬â€œ a rather rare occurrence.  In fact, this has happened only 18 times in the past 10 years ââ,¬â€œ but previous occurrences have often marked the beginning of larger moves up.  A short term setback is possible given the extent of the rally and the bearish divergence with hourly oscillators at the recent high.  Still, the larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows.  Price above a steeper and shorter term trendline drawn off of the 10/30 and 11/10 lows keeps the short term trend up.  Those lines are on the chart below.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD rally failed just shy of the .7700 figure and price has retraced to .7650.  The pair is supported by a short term trendline, which is just below current price.  Obstacles for bulls going forward are the 11/10 high at .7697 and the 11/1 high at .7766.  The proximity of the swing low at .7614 (11/13 low) limits downside risk.  A break below there would negate the bullish construction and target the 50% of .7413-.7766 at .7590.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi may have found a bottom at the 78.6% fibo of .6532-.6750 at .6579 (low yesterday at .6574).  The rally off of the fibo level is impulsive and has exceeded the last two dayââ,¬â"¢s highs but did fail at the short term resisting line at .6660 today.  A push above the confluence of that line and the mentioned .6673 warrants a more aggressive bullish approach.  Price must remain above .6574 to keep the bullish implications from the impulsive rally to .6645 intact.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.