UK Rightmove House Prices (NOV) (00:01GMT; 19:01EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: n/a n/a
Previous: 2.0% 11.5%
Outlook: House price growth, as measure by Britainâ,"s largest real-estate web site Rightmove, may maintain its break-neck pace in November as a solid labor market and lower oil prices boost consumer confidence. More optimistic sentiment amongst households has already contributed to higher consumption figures, and as supply of homes remains limited, the influx of demand will likely push prices higher. Downside risk comes from the Bank of Englandâ,"s widely expected rate hike during the month to 5.00 percent, which may have dissuaded some potential home buyers as borrowing costs looked to rise. Additionally, wage growth has not been able to accelerate with the tighter conditions of the labor market, as a steady supply of immigrants from Eastern Europe keeps payrolls low. As a result, would-be home buyers may not feel confident in their income outlook to commit to such a sizeable purchase.
Previous: House prices in the UK accelerated at an annual rate of 11.5 percent in October, the fastest pace in almost two years. Rightmoveâ,"s commercial director, Miles Shipside, credited the increases to a decline in the supply of new homes to the market, as â,"fewer home owners can afford to trade up.â, Additionally, properties sold more quickly during the month with the average time falling down to 77 days from 79 days, marking the third consecutive drop. The data suggests that the Bank of Englandâ,"s surprise hike to 4.75 percent in August has yet to dampen demand for housing, as the sector continues to contribute to economic growth and consumer spending with households borrowing money against the value of their homes. Furthermore, the strong pace of the housing sector was one reason why the BOE decided to raise rates another time to 5.00 percent in November.
Canadian Wholesale Sales (SEP) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EDT)
Consensus: -0.3%
Previous: 0.5%
Outlook: Leading the more closely monitored retail counter-part, Septemberâ,"s wholesale indicator is expected to report a 0.3 percent drop in sales. Following up on two months of consistent gains in the indicator, many of the same influences over September were pushing consumers and businesses to keep their spending habits steady. Over the month of September, the demand pull from the end consumer will likely have been facilitated by the strong labor growth and falling energy prices during the period. Employers added jobs for the first time in four months in September, correcting the longest period of layoffs in years. Furthermore, the positive shift in the job market was aligned with the steepest declines in months. On the other hand, the declines in vehicle purchases and easing in housing starts may have been too powerful to overcome. While consumer optimism was finding steady support from some sources, a 2.4 percent drop in the rate of housing starts likely weighed on sentiment while constraining spending on household products. More importantly, like last month, weak car sales were likely an additional burden. Sales at Canadian car dealers dropped 4.2 percent during the month. Should the wholesale gauge mark any surprises, it could set the stage for the following dayâ,"s retail sales report.
Previous: Canadian wholesale sales grew more than expected in August as a pick up on food and household product purchases helped to offset weakness for auto-markers. Expected to rise 0.3 percent, overall sales at the wholesale level grew 0.5 percent to C$42.6 billion. From the positive forces in the overall gauge, a 1.9 percent jump in food and 7.1 percent growth in household orders were leading the day. However, the volatile change in the auto sector was holding back a repeat of Julyâ,"s 2.2 percent advance. Vehicle sales slipped 9.3 percent in August to C$6.7 billion, on the back of a 10.3 percent increase. Further weighing in on the strength of the upstream industry group, inventories were also on the rise. Rising 1.2 percent for the period, the stocks-to-sales ratio grew to 124 percent.
US Leading Indicators (OCT) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EDT)
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.1%
Outlook: After falling short of prediction in September, the Conference Boardâ,"s Leading Indicators Index is expected to print another month of growth. Used to predict growth in the coming three to six months, the composite of 10 economic components is forecasted to grow 0.2 percent. If it should realize this rate of expansion, it would match the fastest pace of growth since March. From the number of known sub-gauges, a preliminary prediction can be formed. The equitiesâ," portion should benefit from the 3.5 percent run in the S&P 500 over the period to a new multi-year high. From the labor barometer, a drop in the average weekly jobless claims from 313,800 in August to 311,500 in September will support the consumer sector. On the other hand, the slight drop in the Conference Boardâ,"s own consumer confidence indicator will act to offset it somewhat. Leveraging the negative, the second monthly drop in retail sales could leave the consumer goods orders component lower, while the 6.3 percent drop in building permits could prove the biggest detractor from the overall report. The marketâ,"s response to this composite may reveal the level of concern over the health of US growth. Since third quarter GDP slowed to a 1.6 percent pace of expansion, traders could be discounting a disappointing turn from the report already.
Previous: The composite of leading economic indicator grew for the first month in September, though the rate of expansion missed economistsâ," consensus. Looking to the breakdown of components, exactly half were contributing to the monthâ,"s growth. Topping the list of contributors was the jump in the consumer expectations gauge, which produced a 0.3 percent positive addition. American sentiment was buoyed in both the University of Michigan and Conference Boardâ,"s surveys as consistent employment and wage growth helped encourage spending greater amounts of disposable income preserved by cheaper gas prices. On the other hand, the leader of the five detracting components in September was a 0.17 percent drop in building permits. Considered a leading indicator for the housing market, filings for new buildings dropped 6.3 percent over the month to the lowest level in nearly 5 years.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.