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Market Action Remains Difficult as S&P 500 Nears High for Year
By Toni Hansen | Published  06/19/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Action Remains Difficult as S&P 500 Nears High for Year

Good day! I hope you had a wonderful weekend! It got off to a rather slow start with Friday's trading. Going into the day I had a rather bullish bias, but the large gap up in the morning took most of the steam out of the market. Following the open, the SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. held up the best initially. The NASDAQ began to sell off right away, but it took the other two about 30 minutes before they also turned around. At that point the NASDAQ really gave way to selling, quickly closing its gap and then some before the SP500 and the Dow hit their 5 minute 20 sma support.

 

The 10:15 ET reversal period came at the same time as the intraday support level and helped create a bit of a bounce for about 30 minutes. Selling resumed, but at a much more gradual pace. The prior lows in the NASDAQ and SP500 both held, although the Dow and SP500 made it back to their 15 minute 20 sma support. The slower pace meant that it would be difficult to see any strong selling into the early afternoon. It wasn't slow enough to create a rapid move back to highs, however, and the market meandered along the 15 minute support level going into the afternoon.

Since volume remained light throughout the market's ascent, it opened the door for a possible retest of lows. Due to the strong daily charts and the fact that it was the end of a very slow week in the market, however, I expected them to hold. The market tried to pull back into 15:00 ET, but when that reversal period hit, it stopped dead in it's tracks, narrowing the day's range as the week came to a close.

Despite the daily charts still holding up very well, we aren't seeing a great deal of conviction to the rally. The Commodity Channel Index is still overbought and the pace on the upside has slowed significantly. I found it much more difficult to find new swingtrade setups of interest for the new week, although most remain bullish. This suggests greater risk for new positions. As a result, I'll be focusing primarily on daytrades this week and just managing longer term open positions as opposed to entering many new ones.

Updates: AAP from the $51.88 zone on the 4/25 hit new highs of $63.50. Trailing stop initiated for position trades. Some hit. CI triggered on 5/26 with the break of $97.55 and has highs of $107.34. Targets hit and trailing stops now initiated. RT from the $15.40-.50 zone has highs of $16.75.  GR from the $42 zone hit highs of $42.98. Support is now Thursday's lows. EL needs to hold Fri. lows.  USG from a break in $47.50 has highs of $48.05 and need to hold $46.40. SPLS is still of interest. SLXP broke out on 6/15 over $18.13. It has highs of $18.30.

Economic Reports and Events
June 20: Leading Indicators for May (10:00 am)
June 21: -
June 22: -
June 23: Initial Claims 06/18 (8:30 am), Existing Home Sales for May (10:00 am)
June 24: Durable Orders for May (8:30 am), New Home Sales for May (10:00 am)
June 27: -
June 28: Consumer Confidence for Jun (10:00 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
June 20: KMX (B)
June 21: CMC (B), DRI (?), JBL (A), LEN (B), KR (?)
June 22: BBBY (A), GTK (B), KMG (?), MWD (?), WOR (B)
June 23: ATYT (?), COGN (A), DLM (?), FDO (B), FDX (?), OVTI (A), RAD (?), SLR (?), TEK (A), TIBX (?)
June 24: -
June 27: NKE (B), PAYX (A), WAG (?)
June 28: APOL (B), EMMS (B)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.