Swiss Trade Balance (OCT) (07:15 GMT; 02:15 EST)
Consensus:         SFr 1.50B
Previous:             SFr 1.76B

Outlook:  The Swiss Trade Balance looks to ease off of Septemberââ,¬â"¢s record-highs, as strong consumer demand is likely to drive imports higher on the month. Overall trends will likely remain intact, however, with Swiss exports growing at an impressive 7.8 percent Year to Date pace. A steadily declining domestic currency has bolstered foreign demand for Swiss-made goods, with the Swissie at six-year lows against its Eurozone counterpart. Likewise boosting the net trade surplus, quickly falling energy costs have reduced the nominal value of broader imports and have pushed the Real year-on-year change to -3.2 percent. We will look to tomorrowââ,¬â"¢s report to see if this trend will continue, with a continually high Swiss trade balance supportive of a reversal in the domestic currency.

Previous:   Initially reported at SFr 1.85 billion on the month, Septemberââ,¬â"¢s surplus was the largest on record for the relatively small European economy. Later revised lower to 1.76 billion for the same period, the trade surplus nonetheless underlines the impressive strength of the Swiss export industry. Exporters have enjoyed the effects of a domestic currency at historic lows against the Euro, which serves to increase the competitiveness of Swiss goods at the expense of international producers. Given continued Euro strength, there is little reason to believe that this effect will dissipate in the medium term. If in fact the domestic currency reverses recent losses, however, the Swiss trade balance will return to longer term trend levels. We will monitor upcoming economic reports to judge the likelihood of such a scenario.

French GDP (3Q) (6:45 GMT; 2:45 EDT)
                         (QoQ)          (YoY)
Consensus:         0.0%           1.9%
Previous:             0.0%           2.6%

Outlook:  French third quarter GDP is expected to slow markedly from second quarter growth rate of 2.6 percent to 1.9 percent rate presently.  The slowdown in growth will likely be driven by the combination of higher input costs and rising exchange rates and lackluster job growth but Finance Minister Terry Breton expects growth to pick up in the fourth quarter buoyed by improving consumer demand.
 
Previous:  French consumer spending increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, faster than the previously reported 0.7 percent. Business spending rose 2.3 percent after shrinking in the first quarter. Exports increased 1.6 percent while imports expanded at 3.2 percent rate. While second quarter growth was brisk, French executive pared their expectations for the upcoming quarter suggesting that momentum was slowing.

Swiss Producer Prices & Import Prices (OCT) (08:15 GMT; 03:15 EST)
                         (MoM)              (YoY)
Consensus:        -0.2%               2.3%
Previous:             0.0%               2.5%

Outlook:  Swiss inflation outside of the consumer sector is expected to slow further in October, giving the SNB greater scope to moderate its aggressive policy stance.  Prices for goods that are imported into Switzerland or measured at the factory gate are expected to have contracted 0.2 percent last month, what would be the first monthly drop since November.  A number of complementary indicators are supporting consensus among economists.  Recently, the SVME manufacturing survey printed its worst read in eight months in October as managers reported softer demand for exports.  Even worries that domestic spending could hit a speed bump may encourage factories to trim prices.  Recently, the SECO consumer climate gauge reported in at its highest level since 2001, but the rise fell short of expectations, suggesting confidence in local spending may be exaggerated.  The most highly correlated indicator to the producer and import inflation gauge is the consumer price index for October.  Price growth was expected to step back modestly from a 0.8 percent year-over-year pace to 0.7 percent; but the figure actually came in at 0.3 percent growth.  Though much of the relief was seen in the energy group, the cheaper prices for the manufacturer likely persuaded managers to pass on the cheaper costs to the consumer to facilitate demand. 

Previous:   Inflation for goods that are imported or otherwise measured at the factory gate passed unchanged through the month of September as energy prices retreated.  With the moderation in the monthly read, the annual figure in turn slowed from its 3.1 percent high recorded in August to 2.5 percent.  While the easing in inflation was obvious, the changes were actually better than expected for policy hawks.  Economists expected the monthly read to print a 0.4 percent contraction and the yearly report to contract to a 2.1 percent figure.  As was expected, most of the easing was spurred by a drop in energy prices.  Crude oil prices, the benchmark of the energy group, were 10 percent lower in September from only a month ago.  While the drop in this specific group was rather large, a number of modest increases in other components helped to float the overall indicator.  Vegetable, livestock, meat, steel and non-ferrous metals were all more expensive in September.

Canadian Retail Sales (SEP) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                         (MoM)        (ex Autos)
Consensus:        -1.0%            -0.3%
Previous:             1.0%             0.4%

Outlook:  Sales at Canadian retailers are expected to drop 1.0 percent over the month of September as gas receipts and purchases of autos eased.  This unfavorable outlook for one of the most reliable domestic spending indicator was in place before the sales report of the related wholesale industry hit the newswires.  Expected to edge 0.4 percent, wholesale activity actually dropped 1.6 percent through September, the largest single contraction in two years.   Breaking the related report down into its most active components; a 4.4 percent drop in car and truck sales and an equally effective 3.3 percent reduction in electronic equipment purchases should correlate to similar changes in the retail report.  Also, the progressively cheaper prices for gasoline will add extra weight on the more closely watched report.  While the headline retail number will likely produce an immediate change in fundamental sentiment underlying the Canadian dollar, the broader picture will likely rely more on the quarterly change and inventory/sales ratio.  With energy prices providing a sizable leverage on the month-to-month change in the sales reports, the three-month change will offer a truer picture of consumersââ,¬â"¢ spending habits.  Canadian central bankers and economists alike will monitor the strength in sales to determine whether the vital consumer group will be able to prop economic growth as exports continue to crumble.

Previous:   Canadian retailers reported stronger than expected sales over the month of August, led by activity at auto dealers and furniture stores.  Expected to grow 0.8 percent according to a survey of economists, sales actually topped 1.0 percent for a value of C$33.4 billion.  This strong level of demand despite higher lending rates and dear gas prices was attributed to consumer confidence that has risen on the back of earnings growth and a labor market that is the tightest it has been in nearly thirty years.  Breaking the overall indicator into groups, the big movers were immediately visible.  Furniture sales grew 1.3 percent to C$2.35 billion while supermarket, convenience and liquor store sales picked up 0.6 percent.  These changes aside, the heavily weighted automobile and parts sector was contributing more than its fair share to the overall increase.  Helped by the use of incentives, Canadians purchased 4.1 percent more from dealers.  When this influential change was excluded, the retail sales figure would have advanced only 0.4 percent for the month.  Regardless, officials and markets took the rise in the overall indicator as evidence that the consumer spending would stabilize growth in the nation and in turn forgo the need to cut lending rates as a means to stimulate growth.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.