EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Very little has happened since 11/10.  The EURUSD has ranged between 1.2761 and 1.2902 since that time.  The larger triangle scenario continues to play out.  This pattern favors a decline in what would complete the 5 wave triangle.  Targets going forward and potential reversal points (reverse to the upside) are at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2483-1.2902 at 1.2742 and the 61.8% at 1.2644.  A short term resistance line from a bearish channel is just above current price.  The lower end of the channel is support near 1.2750.  Only a break above 1.2902 suggests greater bullish potential.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY continues to trade around the 118 figure.  A confident directional bias eludes us until a break from the recent 117.12-118.58 occurs.  A break above 118.58 exposes the 78.6% of 119.87-116.54 at 119.14 and a break below 117.12 targets the 11/1 low at 116.54.  Short term momentum favors bulls with hourly RSI greater than 50.  The 10 day SMA did cross above the 20 day SMA yesterday, which favors bulls.  The confluence of those moving averages is support at 117.83/91.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cableââ,¬â"¢s rally has slowed considerably ahead of the 1.9000 figure and bearish divergence on the hourly gives scope to short term weakness.  Initial support is at yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at 1.8931.  Resistance at current price is reinforced by the 10 and 20 day SMAs at 1.8984/88.  Additional strength targets the 61.8% fibo of the decline from 1.9178 at 1.9047.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF is barely holding above support from the 6 month trendline drawn off of the May and August lows.  In fact, 5 of the last 7 daysââ,¬â"¢ (including today) trading has broken below the trendline intraday but managed to close above the line.  On the hourly, it looks like there may be one more rally that would complete a 3 wave correction of weakness from 1.2537.  The 61.8% fibo of 1.2537-1.2396 at 1.2483 would be resistance.  It takes a break below 1.2346 to suggest greater bearish potential.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The USDCAD is little changed following yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s push to 1.1484.  The short term picture remains bullish as long as price holds above a short term support line from 11/10.  The larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows.  Former resistance at the 10/17 high of 1.1413 is now support.  Price needs to remain above the 11/2 high of 1.1372 in order for the bullish structure to remain intact.  Bullish targets going forward include the 138.2% and 161.8% extensions of 1.1177-1.1372 from 1.1255 at 1.1524 and 1.1572.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The AUDUSD has challenged the .7700 figure this morning.  Still, the rally from .7614 is corrective in nature as the waves are overlapping.  Also, price is right at a resistance line from a short term bullish channel which may serve to limit immediate upside potential.  A break below .7614 is required to suggest greater bearish potential.  Strength past .7707 (high this morning) exposes the 11/1 high at .7766.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The rally from .6574 has challenged the 78.6% of .6750-.6574 at .6713 this morning.  A reverse hammer on the hourly at .6713 along with bearish divergence (hourly RSI) gives scope to short term weakness.  Initial support is at the 38.2% of .6615-.6713 at .6676.  Weakness below there targets the 61.8% at .6652.  Strength above .6713 would shift focus to the 11/1 high at .6750.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.