Japanese All Industry (SEP) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
Consensus: -1.0%
Previous: 0.7%
Outlook: The All-Industry index for Japan is estimated to decline 1.0 percent in the month of September, which would mark a two-year low. A fall in the report will likely be led by the tertiary index, which has already been released for the month and makes up 60.4 percent of the all-industry composite. The gauge of money spent on services in Japan dropped 1.3 percent as household spending plunged and wages stagnated despite a relatively tight labor market. Additionally, the manufacturing index, which makes up 20.2 percent of the all-industry composite, is likely to take a hit in September as industrial production dropped 0.7 percent during the month on dwindling output in the mining sector. However, since we already know that Japanese GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter, a tepid release of the All-Industry report should not have a significant impact on the yen.
Previous: The Japanese All-Industry index gained 0.7 percent in the month of August, the biggest increase since April. The tertiary industry component of the index, which makes up the majority of the report, also rose 0.7 percent led my demand for utilities. Auto companies and chipmakers in Japan increased production amid expectations that global and domestic demand would expand. Furthermore, unemployment near an eight-year low also spurred speculation that it would fuel further growth in wages, which could help to drive the household spending which represent more than half of the economy.
Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (SEP) (10:00 GMT; 05:00 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -2.4% 9.3%
Previous: 3.7% 14.3%
Outlook: Euro-zone industrial new orders are estimated to correct lower after jumping 3.7 percent in the last month alone. Demand from the US is likely to have slowed as economic expansion in the country dwindles. Additionally, exports to Japan for products such as basic metals and electrical equipment could diminish as manufacturing output declines there as well, especially as prices for commodities were sky-high during the month. Nevertheless, the annual reading is anticipated to hold at a robust 9.3 percent, keeping the industrial sector on track to contribute positively to Euro-zone GDP.
Previous: Industrial new orders in the Euro-zone jumped 3.7 percent in the month of August, bringing the annual rate to a solid 14.3 percent. The gain was led by a 9.1 percent surge in transport equipment orders and a 3.2 percent rise in basic metals. Regionally, German and Italy contributed the most to the Euro-zone report, as domestic demand was solid during the month. Furthermore, exports to Asia kept the figure buoyant as manufacturing sector growth abroad boosts the need for materials. Nevertheless, the industrial new order report tends to be highly volatile and may not indicate sustained expansion for the sector.
Canadian Consumer Price Index (OCT) (12:00 GMT; 07:00 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -0.2% 1.0%
Previous: -0.5% 0.7%
Outlook: Inflation in Canadaââ,¬â"¢s consumer basket is expected to ease the sharp contraction reported in September. However, economistsââ,¬â"¢ expect the follow through declines in energy prices to carry the index lower for a second consecutive month, with a 0.2 percent drop at the median of predictions. Compared to the previous monthââ,¬â"¢s component breakdown, the 9.1 percent drop in the energy group through September will likely stabilize and lift some of the burden off the overall gauge. On the other hand, the cumulative effects of cheaper energy prices from August through October on producers may have encouraged discounts in order to stimulate feeble demand in the month before. When all is said and done though, the best forecasting tool for Canadian inflation may be the change in the US CPI figures. Since the US is Canadaââ,¬â"¢s largest trade partner by a wide margin, economic shifts in one nation are often reflected in another. Last week, the US reported a drop in all measurements of its price index. The US energy aggregate slipped another 7.1 percent while the gasoline component plunged 11 percent. Whatââ,¬â"¢s more, the yearly core figure finally faltered from its decade high pace. Despite expectations of more volatility in the headline report, BoC policy makers will likely latch on to core inflation and the central bankââ,¬â"¢s own inflation calculation. Adjusted for the federal sales-tax cut put into effect in July, the BoCââ,¬â"¢s inflation gauge has yet to moderate below the 2.0 percent target rate.
Previous: Canadian inflation was a mixed bag in September. Headline reports plummeted as core and Bank of Canada-measured indicators printed markedly better results. From the broader gauge, prices dropped the most since in almost a year over period. A 0.5 percent contraction was almost entirely the influence of energy prices. Altogether the energy group slid 9.1 percent, paced by a record-breaking 17.4 percent dive in gasoline prices. Furthermore, a savings in energy costs was passed onto the transportation group which reported a 4.4 percent reduction in costs in September. However, when the volatile effects of energy were stripped from the index, the changes were very different. The core report, excluding the volatile eight components, rose 0.5 percent for the largest advance since May. Aside from energyââ,¬â"¢s impressive shift, an 8.8 percent and 3.3 percent increase in housing and mortgage costs respectively floated the overall gauge higher.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.