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The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly
By Lawrence G. McMillan | Published  11/24/2006 | Options | Unrated
The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly

How many ways can one say the same thing?  Our market opinion hasn't changed in what seems like months -- weeks, for certain. $SPX continues to plod higher, while exhibiting extremely low volatility. Corrections continue to be well-contained, and rallies haven't gotten overly out of hand.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain very bullish.  They have been aided by two very extreme situations lately -- dividend arbitrage plays in McDonalds (MCD) and Wynn (WYNN) -- both of which paid large special dividends that caused arbs to trade massive quantities of vertical call spreads.  The two plays resulted in about 6 million calls being traded that normally wouldn't have been.  Even so, these ratios remain bullish as they continue to decline.  They are beginning to reach the lower regions of the chart, but don't anticipate a sell signal here.  They remain bullish until they roll over and begin to rise -- something not likely immediately (note that the QQQQ chart has given a sell signal).

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been in overbought territory for the last week or so -- ever since the last feeble attempt at a market correction. This is indicative of the potential for a sharp, but short-lived correction, but is also positive in that it shows the participation in this rally is broadly based.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have generated some publicity in the media by making new lows.  Clearly, it's another indication of an overbought condition of sorts, but as long as volatility remains low, the market can rally.

In summary, there are no sell signals in place, and therefore we retain an intermediate-term bullish opinion, while acknowledging that certain overbought conditions could produce short-lived corrections.

Lawrence G. McMillan is the author of two best selling books on options, including Options as a Strategic Investment, recognized as essential resources for any serious option trader's library.