German GfK Consumer Confidence (DEC) (07:10 GMT; 02:10 EST)
Consensus:            9.4
Previous:                9.2

Outlook:  December consumer confidence in Germany, as measured by the GFK survey, may reach 9.4, in line with recent readings from IFO. The headline reading of the German IFO survey unexpectedly jumped to a reading of 106.8, while the current assessment gained to 113.9. The rises were attributed to the lower cost of oil in the month of November and very strong order flow in recent months. Meanwhile, the expectations component also surprisingly improved to 100.1, which marked the second consecutive gain for the index. The more optimistic sentiment amongst businesses will likely add to the European Central Bankâ�,��"�s arguments for a rate hike in December, as companies are no longer as pessimistic about the economic outlook, which includes a VAT hike in January 2007 to 19 percent from 16 percent.

Previous: GfKâ�,��"�s forward-looking German consumer climate indicator for November edged up to a five year high of 9.4, from a revised 8.9 in the month prior. Confidence in Germany and throughout the Euro-zone has held steady in light of weaker oil prices and improving economic growth outlooks. This optimism should help to boost domestic spending in coming months, especially as consumers see the opportunity to save money ahead of the impending VAT hike in 2007. However, tightening interest rates could have an inverse effect, as borrowing costs continue to mount.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator (OCT) (09:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:          n/a
Previous:             1.883

Outlook:  UBSâ�,��"� proprietary consumer spending indicator has no consensus attached to its October report.  However, a number of related indicators for the same month may set up a second consecutive positive change in the consumption read.  From the list of October indicators released over the past weeks, consumers have found a generous level of statistical support.  From a cost perspective, consumers have seen inflation cool significantly over the past few months.  From Septemberâ�,��"�s 0.8 percent annual pace of growth, the CPI level for the following month slowed to 0.3 percent, allowing the Swiss to stretch their francs further.  At the same time, cheaper gas prices and the strong job market have padded relative earnings.   Taking all the October indicators into account though, the most directly related indicator to the spending number may be the recent consumer sentiment read.  A quarterly read, the SECO Consumer Climate indicator reported optimism through the three months ending in October rose to its highest level in five-and-a-half years.  The groupâ�,��"�s surveyors cited confidence surrounding economic growth and employment as the main drivers underlying the buoyant levels of sentiment.  For the broader scheme of things, this consumer spending indicator will be the last one reviewed before the SNBâ�,��"�s December rate meeting.  Therefore, this indicator may be central in determining how consumer spending will affect inflationary pressures in the months ahead.

Previous: Consumer spending in Switzerland grew for the first time in three months in September according to the consumption trend indicator for the period.  Rising to 1.883 for the month, the boost was spurred by the combination of strong employment, falling energy prices and a strong economy.  In the most recent jobs report, the unemployment rate slipped to a three-and-a-half year low 3.2 percent as local firms attempted to meet growing export demand that had also ramped up economic growth to its highest level since the beginning of the millennium.  Elsewhere, a unique contribution to spending came from the relief in energy prices.  In the key crude oil market, prices for the unrefined goods were off 22 percent from the all-time high set in mid-July.  For consumers the savings came in the form of cheaper prices at stores and a reduced price at the pump.

US Durable Goods Orders (OCT) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
                            (Orders)        (Ex Transport)
Consensus:            -5.0%             0.2%
Previous:                8.3% (R)        0.5% (R)

Outlook:  Durable goods sales look to post sharp declines through October, as Septemberâ�,��"�s 6-year highs are unlikely to be sustained through the medium term. Much like through the previous month, however, the headline figure will obscure the more important Ex Transport growth number. Excluding volatile sales of airplanes and other large-ticket transport items, durable goods sales will likely add 0.2 percent on the month. Though this is a far cry from Juneâ�,��"�s 1.8 percent growth, it would represent the second consecutive month of a positive change for an otherwise volatile number. Perhaps more importantly, the figure likewise represents the first piece of solid US economic data since recent dollar declines. Traders will likely watch for any surprises as a confirmation of the dollar-bearish trend or likelihood of an imminent reversal.

Previous: Headline durable goods growth hit 6-year highs through September, as a large number of airplane orders pushed the overall figure to a whopping 8.3 percent change on the month. Of course, these multi-billion dollar deals inaccurately skewed the more important ex-transport health measure, which added 0.5 percent through the same period. Analysts will look to upcoming figures to provide clearer indication of future trends, as especially volatile recent month-to-month changes produce an unclear picture of underlying demand growth.

US Consumer Confidence (NOV) (15:00GMT; 10:00EST)
Consensus:         106.0
Previous:             105.4

Outlook:  Economists predict that consumer confidence improved in the month of November, as low energy prices and a resilient labor market improved optimism in the worldâ�,��"�s largest economy. The US Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said recently that the average retail price nationwide for regular unleaded gasoline has been about $2.25 a gallon in the fourth quarter, down from an average of $2.83 a gallon in the third quarter. With consistently low energy costs, the US consumer has considerably more purchasing power at his or her disposal, as the October reading of Personal Income is anticipated to gain 0.5 percent. Many economists hope that strong consumer confidence and subsequent spending will offset declines in real estate values. As such, it will be important to watch for any surprises in the important barometer of consumer health in the US economy.

Previous: American consumers indicated they were less optimistic in October, as the Conference Boardâ�,��"�s index of sentiment unexpectedly dropped to 105.4 from a revised reading of 105.9 in the month prior. Uncertainty regarding US upcoming mid-term elections, a worsening situation in Iraq, and concerns of a housing market crash left households pessimistic. As a result, retail sales slipped 0.2 percent during the month of October, despite falling oil prices, which typically lends strength to consumption figures. Given that the consumer spending sector accounts for 70 percent of GDP, it will be critical to watch whether it can rebound in Q4. As such, traders will watch for further developments in the measure of optimism of the countryâ�,��"�s 300 million-strong consumers.

US Existing Home Sales (OCT) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
                         (Sales)        (MoM)
Consensus:        6.15M         -0.6%
Previous:            6.18M         -1.9%

Outlook:  The housing market, which has quickly become one of the most pressing issues for the worldâ�,��"�s largest economies, will receive another update with Octoberâ�,��"�s used home sales report.  Expected to slip another 0.6 percent, expectations continue to dim as the sector falls deeper into the worst slump in 15 years.  Looking to related economic data, the fundamentals supporting this dour consensus become obvious.  Consumer optimism found a ceiling according to the Conference Boardâ�,��"�s measurements for the same month.  Consumers are increasingly concerned as the housing slump wicks wealth away from housing values, while at the same time additions to payrolls grow slighter each month. Conversely, the unemployment rate slimmed down to 4.4 percent, the lowest level in five-years.  Furthermore, recent housing data has been sprinkled with indications of cheaper prices as developers try to move inventory and mortgage rates start to back off on expectations of an eventual rate cut from the fed sometime in 2007.  However, when all is said and done, the best forecast for the existing sales report may come from the Housing Starts read for the same month.  Starts dropped a massive14.6 percent to a 1.486 million unit pace in October.  Whatâ�,��"�s more permits dropped a record ninth consecutive month to the lowest level since 1997 over the same period.  If housing statistics continue to drop below expectations, the group of releases may quickly become the most influential for dollar traders and further exacerbate the currencyâ�,��"�s recent weakness. 

Previous: Existing home sales fell for the sixth consecutive month in September.  Falling 1.9 percent from the previous period, the 6.18 million annual unit pace was the lowest level in the NARâ�,��"�s proprietary housing report in nearly three years.  Breaking down the statistics of the report, sales of single family homes dropped 14.2 percent from a year ago, offering a bleak view of the health of the overall market.  On the other hand, inventories and sales components of the read are starting to show a few of the positive side-effects of a weak headline number.  With sales of both new and existing homes falling across the board, basic economics suggest that realtors and developers will respond in order to salvage their businesses.  Acting as expected, inventories over the month fell 2.4 percent to a 7.3 month supply; while prices for single-family homes dropped 2.5 percent from a year ago, the biggest drop since 1969.  Despite this silver lining, the improvement has yet to find its way into the sales reports; and may not unless consumer income and confidence levels pick up in the months ahead.

Japanese Industrial Production (OCT P) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
                              (MoM)      (YoY)
Consensus:             -0.4%       4.9%
Previous:                 -0.7%       5.2%

Outlook:  Japanese industrial production is predicted to have declined on a seasonally adjusted basis through October, reflecting the first back-to-back decline since February of this year. The same preliminary yearly figures are likely to prove more optimistic, however, with annual growth remaining near the 5.0-5.9 percent trend seen through the past four months. Industrial production figures will likely prove significant to Yen bulls hoping for Bank of Japan rate hikes through the medium term. Given the central bankâ�,��"�s concern of an appreciating domestic currency, officials will likely monitor industrial production growth as a bellwether for Japanese export health. If industrial expansion falls below trend, the BoJ will likely emphasize caution over enacting policies that stress monetary tightening.

Previous: Japanese industrial production declined on a seasonally adjusted basis through September, proving that Augustâ�,��"�s 1.8 percent was too high to be sustained. Automobiles and other machinery goods led the broader index lower, as strong export gains were not enough to keep economic figures in positive territory. In fact, the weak industrial production numbers were enough to prompt predictions of further declines in Octoberâ�,�”reflected by consensus predictions of a 0.7 percent drop. Markets will watch for confirmation of such suspicions, with any further losses to prove bearish for the Japanese economy as a whole.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.