Australian Construction Work Done (3Q) (01:30 GMT; 19:30 EST)
Consensus: 1.9%
Previous: 3.6%
Outlook: Construction activity is expected to have slowed its pace of expansion over the three months through September to 1.9 percent. Expectations for a reduction in spending within the significant sector come on the back of questionable business and consumer sentiment over the same period. Business confidence in the final month of the third quarter sank to an 8 month low, suggesting spending on expanding factory space could have been limited. Executives over the period were faced with weak economic expansion, growing interest rates and faltering demand. Rising lending rates was an issue at the front of many minds after the RBA decided to lift the overnight cash rate another quarter point to 6.00 percent in August. Demand prospects were also looking lean through the period with second quarter GDP marking a three-year low and the following period looking to cheaper commodity exports and the worst drought in a century. From the consumer side, housing growth may not be able to close the gap left by the business community. Though the more inclusive building approvals indicator printed strong growth in July and September, a 12.4 percent drop in August following the rate hike offers statistic evidence that cautions the market. Economists and Australian policy officials will use this report as a gauge of both consumer and business health, while at the same time measuring the sectors contribution to the forthcoming GDP report.
Previous: Construction work rebounded substantially in the second quarter following nearly stagnant growth in the opening months of the year. Activity over the period jumped 3.6 percent, the fastest pace of acceleration in a year, as businesses flush with commodity sales revenue and a well funded consumer led both groups to spend more on permanent residential and factory space. From the breakdown of the quarterly report, it was evident that strength was largely isolated to the private sector. Private construction grew 4.5 percent to A$19.88 billion, while building in the same group rose 4.1 percent to A$13.52 billion. Further dividing the numbers reveals new housing values grew to A$5.21 trillion while the value of total construction grew to A$14.98 trillion, the highest level since the third quarter of last year.
KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (NOV) (10:30GMT; 5:30EST)
Consensus: 1.90
Previous: 2.00
Outlook: The KOF Leading Indicator Index, used to predict growth in the coming six to nine months, is expected to slow for the fifth consecutive month in November. Economists expect the forward-looking indicator to fall 10 points to 1.90, which would be the lowest print since the February figure and a substantial distance from the six-year high set in July. Despite these predictions, however, multiple economic releases since last monthâ,"s KOF report have supported stronger growth in the months ahead. The employment level for the third quarter rocketed 1.3 percent higher from 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Consumption, in turn, rose as indicated by the UBS indicator, which hit 1.960 in October. Trade may also play into a stronger numbers, as last monthâ,"s balance posted at a better than expected surplus of 1.58 billion Swiss francs. However, the manufacturing sector may prove anchor to growth, as SVME PMI declined to 62.3 on weaker output.
Previous: The KOF Swiss Leading indicator, one of the most important economic gauges for Switzerland, declined more than expected in October to a seven month low of 2.00. Meanwhile, the reading from September was revised down to 2.00 from 2.32. The report does not bode well for Switzerland, and although economic expansion in the country has been strong throughout 2006, it is becoming clear that a slowdown in growth may be approaching. Despite all of this, the Swiss National Bank is still expected to hike rates 25 basis points in December, as SNB President Roth said just prior to the release that â,"interest rates are still lowâ, while production capacity is â,"fully utilized.â,
Canadian Current Account (BOP) (3Q) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus: C$3.4B
Previous: C$4.2B
Outlook: The trade-dependant Canadian economy will disclose its current account performance numbers for the third quarter. A market consensus for a C$3.4 billion surplus would represent a new three-year low in the broadest measure of Canadian trade. From the component merchandise and securities transactions reports over the same period, it is not hard to understand where the predictions come from. In the international securities transactions reports from July through September, the indicators struggle to keep a surplus is obvious. In August, the positive gap totaled only C$83 million; and the following month the indicator proceeded to plunge into a C$3.08 billion deficit. This was consequently first deficit and lowest worst account balance in nine months. The poor inflow of investment capital into Canada was headed by the BoCâ,"s decision to halt its rate regime while other central bank rates were already above 4.25 percent or otherwise signaled to the market that they would continue to tighten going into the future. Making up for a greater portion of the balance of payments, the merchandise trade balance has also fallen on hard times. A burdensomely expensive Canadian dollar and falling prices for commodity exports helped trim the long-running surplus in the three months through September. In July, the balance marked a three-year low C$3.85 billion, and the balance recovered little ground afterwards. From the September report, exports fell for the first time in five months on plunging energy prices, while shipments of autos abroad fell to the lowest level since 1998. Since a positive trade account has stabilized the Canadian economy for a number of years, further contractions in the current account could wear on growth and place excessive burden on the struggling industrial and questionable consumer sectors.
Previous: Canadaâ,"s current account surplus was trimmed down to C$4.19 billion in the second quarter of the year, the smallest positive balance in three years. The unfavorable change in the balance of payments was felt on all sides as exports contracted, imports grew and Canadian investors earned less on foreign investments. The deficit in investment income grew to C$4.39 billion from C$3.97 billion. However, the real detriment came on behalf of the physical and services balance. A growing shortfall in the services account picked up steam in a C$4.48 billion deficit. Also, the goods surplus received a sizable withdrawal of C$3.8 billion to bring it to C$12.8 billion. From the breakdown in the physical report, exports fell 1.8 percent from the first quarter as foreign demand for autos eased and general interest in Canadian goods diminished in contrast with the soaring Canadian currency. On the other side of the equation, import grew by the same amount as Canadian consumers took advantage of the exchange rate to purchase cheaper foreign goods and further aggravate the nationâ,"s trade woes.
US New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) (15:00GMT; 10:00EST)
(MoM) (Change)
Consensus: 1.050M -2.3%
Previous: 1.075M 5.3%
Outlook: New home sales in the US are anticipated to fall 2.3 percent to 1.048 million after unexpectedly surging 5.3 percent high in September. Slumping home sales and a record supply of houses on the market likely held down economic growth last quarter, even as consumers and companies increased their spending. Analysts widely expect the release of third-quarter growth to post at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, the slowest this year, although better than initial estimates of 1.6 percent. As a result, consumer confidence is likely to be hurt in coming months, as slower house price appreciation will impact Americansâ," perception of personal wealth. While the holiday shopping season may not be affected, as indicated by a strong start on Black Friday, early 2007 could mark the start of a spending downturn exacerbated by a weaker housing market.
Previous: Surprisingly running counter to the decline in existing home sales, new home sales actually grew 5.3 percent to a 1.075 million unit pace. Marking the biggest advance since March, the figure led the markets to believe in a potential rebound in the steadily declining housing sector. However, there were also a number of factors suggesting this was not the case. Accounting for only 15 percent of the market, new home sales are susceptible to temporary boosts from developer incentives and modest declines in mortgage rates. Furthermore, from the full report from the Commerce Department, the average price change of new homes plunged 9.7 percent, the biggest drop in 36 years. Even with this indicator on the books, the market will need to see more numbers in order to judge the future of the housing market.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.