EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD has come off of the high at 1.3217 to test 1.3150.  Given that the 1.2761 to 1.3217 rally is in 5 waves, this is likely just the beginning of a larger corrective move lower.  Hourly RSI has declined below 50 which indicates short term momentum favors bears.  Support going forward is at the 11/27 low at 1.3085 and the 38.2% fibo of 1.2761-1.3217 at 1.3043.  Daily RSI remains above 70 which could serve to limit upside potential.  The next measured objective for bulls would be the level where larger wave 5 (daily chart) would equal 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 at 1.3280.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY continues to look constructive.  The hourly chart shows a higher short term swing low this morning at 115.57 (when compared to the 11/27 low at 115.36).  Resistance at the 11/24 high of 116.47 is reinforced by the 38.2% fibo of 118.46-115.36 at 116.55.  A push through the 116.47/55 level targets the 50% fibo at 116.91.  The 61.8% fibo is at 117.27.  In summary, 116.91-117.27 could be where the USDJPY downtrend continues.

GBP/USD â�,�“ The Pound remains strong across the board.  Bulls challenged the December 2004 high of 1.9548 in Asian trading last night, as price hit 1.9544.  The pair is sitting tight below 1.9500 as support from the gap opening on Sunday night at 1.9463 remains intact.  A drop below 1.9463 begins to suggest that a larger corrective move lower is underway with yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at 1.9365 as the next potential support level.  A push through 1.9544 exposes the measured objective of 1.9732, which is where larger wave 5 would equal 61.8% of waves 1 through 3.
 
USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF just dipped below the 11/27 low at 1.2023 yesterday and so far this morning but has since rallied towards resistance from the 11/27 and 11/28 highs at 1.2091/2108.  A push above there instills confidence in a more pronounced correction, with resistance not until the confluence of the 11/23 low / 38.2% of 1.2538-1.2011 at 1.2203/12.  A drop below 1.2011 negates the above scenario and exposes the 5/15 low at 1.1919.

USD/CAD â�,�“ We mentioned yesterday that  â�,��"the larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows.  The probability of a turn higher from current levels is improved by bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly at the recent low.  Resistance going forward is at the 11/27 high at 1.1353 and the 11/23 high at 1.1426.â�,�  Price has rocketed higher this morning to above 1.1350 in an impulsive manner.  The next bullish target is the 11/23 high at 1.1426.  The bullish construction remains intact above 1.1286.

AUD/USD â�,�“ The Aussie is strong across the board and unchanged against the US Dollar today.  A well defined short term bullish channel is in place and it does appear that there are 5 waves up from .7614 (extended 3rd wave).  As such, a corrective move lower seems probable but confidence in a move lower is not high until the short term support line is breached near .7800 (see chart below).  A push through .7843 sets bullsâ�,��"� sights on the 11/26/2004 high at .7945.

NZD/USD â�,�“ Yesterdayâ�,��"�s advance carried the NZDUSD out of the 2 month .6486-.6750 range.  The recent correction has been just that â�,�“ corrective and scope remains for additional strength to test the 61.8% fibo of .7461-.5927 at .6873.  Dampening the bullish breakout is the close above the 2nd standard deviation Bollinger Band yesterday, which has led to larger setbacks recently (see chart below).  A deeper setback encounters support at the former resistance level of .6750.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.